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Türkiye döviz piyasalarında oynaklığın öngörülmesi ve risk yönetimi kapsamında değerlendirilmesi
Date
2010-01-01
Author
Ülkem, Başdaş
Soytaş, Uğur
Metadata
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Bu çalışmada, Türkiye döviz piyasalarında TRL/USD, TRL/EUR ve TRL/GBP serilerinin oynaklığı hareketli ortalama modelleri, AR ve ARMA modelleri ve ARCH süreçleri kullanılarak modellenmiş ve modellerin örneklem dışı öngörü performansları karşılaştırılmıştır. Farklı oynaklık öngörüleri kullanılarak elde edilen parametrik VaR modelinin öngörü performansları Basle Komitesi geriye dönük test ölçütleri kapsamında değerlendirilmiştir. Son küresel finansal krizin risk ölçüm teknikleri üzerindeki etkileri ayrıca araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, RMSE ölçütüne göre GARCH grubu modellerin, MAE ölçütüne göre ise AR modelinin serilerinin oynaklık öngörüsünü modellemekte diğer modellere kıyasla daha başarılı olduğunu göstermiştir. Finansal krizin oynaklık öngörü modellerinin sıralamasını değiştirmediği ancak finansal krizle birlikte modellerin performanslarının en kötü performansı sergileyen modele yakınsadığı görülmüştür. Oynaklık öngörü modellerine dayalı olarak tahmin edilen VaR modellerinin performansları karşılaştırıldığında ise EWMA ve GARCH grubu modellerin daha doğru sonuçlar verdikleri görülmüştür. Finansal krizile birlikte VaR modellerinin performansında düşüş olduğu tespit edilmiştir
Subject Keywords
Döviz kuru oynaklık öngörüsü
,
Türkiye döviz piyasaları
,
GARCH/EGARCH/GJR-GARCH modelleri
,
Value-at-risk
,
Exchange rate volatility forecasting
,
Turkish foreign exchange market
,
GARCH/EGARCH/GJR-GARCH models
,
Value-at-risk
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/87057
Journal
Yönetim ve Ekonomi :Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi
Collections
Department of Business Administration, Article
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B. Ülkem and U. Soytaş, “Türkiye döviz piyasalarında oynaklığın öngörülmesi ve risk yönetimi kapsamında değerlendirilmesi,”
Yönetim ve Ekonomi :Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi
, pp. 121–145, 2010, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/87057.