Post-earthquake restoration planning for Los Angeles electric power

Ertuğrul, Zehra
Guikema, Seth D.
This paper describes the application of a new discrete-event-simulation model of the post-earthquake electric power restoration process in Los Angeles. The findings are that (1) Los Angeles residents may experience power outages lasting up to 10 days; (2) what we call the power rapidity risk (the joint probability distribution of restoration of a specified number of customers in a specified amount of time) varies throughout the area; (3) there is a relatively high likelihood that more repair materials than are currently available will be required if a large earthquake occurs; and (4) there are ways to reduce the expected duration of earthquake-initiated power outages and they should be subjected to cost-benefit analysis. These results should be useful to utilities and emergency planners in Los Angeles. The new simulation modeling approach could be used in other seismically active cities to gain insights into the restoration process that other modeling approaches cannot provide.


Post-Earthquake Lifeline Service Restoration Modeling
Ertuğrul, Zehra (2003-11-20)
This paper describes a simulation-based methodology being developed to model post earthquake restoration processes as part of the MCEER research on the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power's (LADWP's) electric and water supply systems. Post-earthquake restoration models play an important role in estimating the economic impact of earthquake damage to lifeline systems. The focus of this study is on electric power system but in the future the proposed methodology will be extended to develop a multi-lifeli...
Discrete event simulation of the post-earthquake restoration process for electric power systems
Ertuğrul, Zehra (2007-01-01)
This paper describes a discrete event simulation model of the post-earthquake restoration process for electric power systems. The model explicitly represents the real-life restoration process, enabling development of geographically disaggregated, quantitative restoration curves with uncertainty bounds, a dynamic map showing the spatial distribution of outages changing over time, and information on how personnel and repair materials are used throughout the process. The new restoration modelling approach is a...
Seismic design of lifeline bridge using hybrid seismic isolation
Dicleli, Murat (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2002-03-01)
This paper presents the merits of a hybrid seismic isolation system used for the seismic design of a major bridge. The bridge is analyzed for two different arrangements of seismic isolation systems. The first arrangement consists of friction pendulum bearings at all substructure locations; the other incorporates a hybrid system where laminated elastomeric bearings are used at the abutments and friction pendulum bearings at the piers. Analysis results have demonstrated that the hybrid seismic isolation syste...
Optimization of crews in post-earthquake electric power restoration
Guikema, S.D.; Xu, N.; Davidson, R.; Nozick, L.K.; Ertuğrul, Zehra (2006-12-01)
A mixed-integer nonlinear program is developed to help optimize post-earthquake electric power restoration, and it is applied to the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) electric power transmission system. The model determines how many inspection, damage assessment, and repair crews to train and where to have them respond so as to minimize the average time each customer is without power. It is solved using a genetic algorithm, and is tightly coupled with a discrete event simulation model of the...
Permanent support design for an existing drainage tunnel at ELİ mine in Turkey
Karpuz, Celal (null; 2007-12-11)
In this study, the results of a new permanent support system design for the re-use of an existing mine drainage tunnel driven through marl rock unit is presented. The tunnel which is 1050 meters long was driven by drilling and blasting and temporarily supported by I section steel sets about two years ago. It is now planned by the mine management to be used as a transportation tunnel for many years. Along the tunnel route, two different rock mass units which were named as marl and graywacke units were en...
Citation Formats
Z. Ertuğrul and S. D. Guikema, “Post-earthquake restoration planning for Los Angeles electric power,” EARTHQUAKE SPECTRA, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 589–608, 2006, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: