Ground Motion to Intensity Conversion Equations (GMICEs) for Türkiye: Evaluation of Regional Differences with Parametric and Non-Parametric Regression Methods

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Kubilay Albayrak_Ms Thesis.pdf

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2023-1-26

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Albayrak, Kubilay

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Earthquakes cause damage to the built environment with the ground motions generated due to seismic energy release. Effects of earthquakes can be measured quantitatively through instrumental measures such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) or qualitatively by macroseismic (felt) intensity levels. It is important to study the correlations between macroseismic intensity and instrumental ground motion parameters. Such relationships for Türkiye exist but they mostly have employed relatively limited datasets. In this study, three sets of data from Türkiye are employed: The first one is from the Aegean-Mediterranean Region, the second is from tectonic regions in Türkiye with dominantly strike slip mechanisms, and the third is the combination of these two datasets. These datasets are gathered to correlate the ground motion parameters with felt intensity levels, and to study potential regional differences. The entire dataset is composed of 69 earthquakes of which instrumental ground motion data and intensity data are available. Initially, the relationships between Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) and log (PGA) as well as log (PGV) are studied with linear regression method using 3140 data pairs of MMI and PGA&PGV. Next, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is performed for 2187 data points composed of magnitude (Mw), PGA (cm/s2), PGV (cm/s), peak ground displacement (PGD) (cm), epicentral distance (km), significant duration (D_5_95), Arias intensity (m/s), focal depth (km), average 30-meter shear wave velocity (Vs30) (m/s), and the number of responses to select the parameters which most influence MMI levels. Based on the results of PCA, multiple linear regression is then performed with explanatory variable couples of PGA and epicentral distance as well as PGV and epicentral distance where MMI is the response variable. Finally, to study potential non-linearities in the data, the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) method is used via piecewise linear functions. Not only the relationships are derived but also regional differences are captured with the analyses performed in this study. The presented equations can be used for ShakeMap applications and disaster management considerations in the future.

Subject Keywords

Felt-Intensity, Parametric and Non-Parametric Regression Methods, Türkiye, Regional Evaluation, Modified Mercalli Intensity

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https://hdl.handle.net/11511/102523

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Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

K. Albayrak, “Ground Motion to Intensity Conversion Equations (GMICEs) for Türkiye: Evaluation of Regional Differences with Parametric and Non-Parametric Regression Methods,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2023.