Mali açıkların Türkiye ekonomisi üzerindeki rolü ve enflasyonla mücadelede etkili politikaların seçimi

Date

1998

Author

Saraçoğlu, Bedriye

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Fiscal deficit in Turkey has been higher than the developing country's average. Understanding the macroeconomic structure of Turkish economy requires to analyse the reasons behind the chronic inflation. Main goal of this paper is to determine alternative strategies against inflation in Turkey by using the vector auto regressive model (VAR). As a result of the VAR analysis, the most important variable which affects the inflation is found as money supply, then, the exchange rate has the second important influence on inflation. Third important variable is found out as a tax revenues. Further, money supply, exchange rate and tax revenues are used as an efficient policy tool by analyzing impulse-response functions. It's found out that after imposing a shock to money supply, exchange rate, and tax revenues, all variables in the systems reach to their equilibrium in the period of time. Consequently, we can recommended money supply and exchange rate as a policy tools against inflation rate. We can point out that fiscal policy is necessary with these policy tools.

URI

http://www2.feas.metu.edu.tr/metusd/ojs/index.php/metusd
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/108372

Collections

Department of Economics, Article