Hasta Kabul Sistemi Simulasyon Metodu

Date

1971

Author

Çınar , Ünver

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HOSPITAL ADMISSION SYSTEM: A SIMULATION APPROACH The planning of admission of patients to various in-patient departments is one of the crucial decision making problems in a hospital environment. The objective of admission planning is to attain better utilization of available beds and diagnostic and treatment facilities. The random nature of demand for medical care and the number of variables representing the state of the system makes the problem quite complex. The simulation approach produces satisfactory results to guide the decision maker. This paper discusses the development of a computer simulation program and its application to a 70 - bedded internal medicine ward of a medical school in Turkey. There were two hypotheses put forward by the analyst: to demostrate that planned admissions could increase the number of inpatients treated and secondly the relation ship between the bed utilization and the number of patients treated is not linear. In general there are three sources of admission to the ward: out-patient and emer gency departments and transfers from other wards. Data have been collected on source of admissions, sex and length of stay of inpatient for a period of one year. It has been observed that the average weekly number of admissions and discharges by sex and length of stay vary throughout the year. In the simulation programme it has been assumed that the normal probability distribution represents the weekly admission and discharges. During the period of one year 849 patients were treated in the observed ward. The simulation results of 70, 80, 90 and 100 percent bed utilization revealed the possible treatment of 951, 1239, 1401 patients respectively. A ten percent increase of bed uti lization (i.e. 70 to 80 percent) results in an increase of 30 percent in the number of patients treated. The simulation programme has been run for a period of ten years and the results have been stable for this period. Although several assumptions have been made, it has been demonstrated that a planned admission system produces better outcomes.

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/109471

Collections

Department of Economics, Article