Investigation of nonlinear interactions causing the major coal mine accidents in Türkiye using system dynamics modeling

Date

2024-4-24

Author

Erbayat, Cumhur Kutay

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The persistent reoccurrence of major accidents in the Turkish coal mining sector is notable. Despite implementing various measures and policy adjustments to enhance safety following each major accident, the system accumulates the potential for catastrophic events over time, leading to new incidents. This study delves into the intricate dynamics leading to recurring major coal mine accidents in Türkiye, employing System Dynamics (SD) modeling techniques. The study utilizes stock-and-flow diagrams to elucidate the nonlinear relationships contributing to major Turkish coal mining industry accidents. The simulation model integrates information from literature, official reports, and expert opinions in developing dependencies between negatively and positively correlated factors and their effects on risk accumulations. The study tries to understand the nuanced intricacies of the Turkish coal mining system and incorporates them into the model equations. The model aims to uncover key leverage points within the system by addressing endogenous parameters to provide actionable insights for minimizing the recurrence of major acccidents. The interdisciplinary nature of this research, combining engineering principles with social and organizational dynamics, contributes to a holistic understanding of the complex system under investigation. The study results point out that the Turkish underground coal mines are becoming more susceptible to major accidents for recurring periods. The model simulation describes the systemic causes of this fluctuating effect. The findings on the leverage points may provide insights for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and safety professionals when developing strategies to enhance the safety and resilience of coal mining operations in Türkiye.

Subject Keywords

Major Mining Accidents, System Dynamics, Underground Coal Mines, Complex Systems, Dynamic Complexity

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/109797

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis