Bölgesel siyasi tercihler ve AKP

Date

2006-02-01

Author

Pınarcıoğlu, Mehmet Melih
Işık, Oğuz

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This article is structured around two main objectives. The first objective is to find out a regional pattern of political preferences. The second one is to evaluate the performance of AKP in the 2002 general elections. For the first objective Anselin’s method of LISA (local indicators of spatial association) is used and cluster maps are prepared for political groups for the 1995 and 1999 elections, i.e. the period preceding the foundation of AKP. These cluster maps are then combined into one by a simple scoring which, we believe, represents the regional pattern of political preferences before the AKP. This general map indicates a sharp segregation among the regions in Turkey in terms of their political preferences, with centre left and right dominant in the west, nationalist right in the Central Anatolia, and Islamist right and regional left in the east and southeast. We then compare this map with the performance of the AKP in the 2002 elections to conclude that AKP has been successful in areas dominated previously by Islamist right and nationalist right in addition to those where no political group was dominant. The fact that the AKP votes have a clear geography leads us to the conclusion that it has not radically altered the existing geography of political preferences in Turkey. On grounds of the resilience of the political geography of Turkey, we conclude that the AKP may run into trouble in the future if, in the medium to long term, it cannot manage to create a new space for itself.

URI

https://iletisim.com.tr/dergiler/toplum-ve-bilim/3/sayi-107-2006/9977
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/110741

Collections

Department of City and Regional Planning, Article