ESTIMATING REGIONAL GDP PER CAPITA IN TÜRKİYE

Date

2025-1-6

Author

Yücel, Berat

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This study investigates nighttime light (NTL) data integrated with land use and population dynamics to estimate regional GDP per capita in Türkiye. Using highresolution satellite imagery and geospatial datasets, it analyzes the relationship between economic activity and nighttime intensity at the provincial level from 2004 to 2020. The framework overlays NTL data with land use classifications—urban, rural, and other—while incorporating grid-based population data. Results reveal a positive, significant relationship between NTL intensity and GDP per capita in a convex trajectory. Urban areas show stronger associations, reflecting industrial and service sector dominance. Error analyses highlight regional disparities: highly urbanized regions show relatively narrower error margins, whereas provinces in the Eastern part of Türkiye show a more dispersed error distribution. Alternative indicators like lit pixel counts and electricity consumption are assessed, with electricity consumption proving the most robust proxy. NTL data remain valuable for regions with sparse economic data. This research highlights geospatial data’s role in economic modeling while noting limitations like data noise, endogeneity, and regional variations in light usage. Future studies could refine these methods and explore sector-specific dynamics.

Subject Keywords

Nighttime Lights, GDP Estimation, Land Use, Geospatial Analysis, Türkiye

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/112969

Collections

Graduate School of Social Sciences, Thesis