A method for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of earthquake magnitude to be used in a liquefaction potential assessment

Date

2025-1-10

Author

Aydoğan, Batuhan

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Cyclic stresses during earthquakes cause shear strain accumulation and excess pore water pressure, leading to soil liquefaction in extreme cases. In 1975, Seed and colleagues suggested that seismic demand on liquefiable soils could be modeled by a series of uniform shear-stress cycles normalized by the effective stress on the shearing plane. Later, the seismic demand was related to earthquake magnitude and peak ground acceleration. In this study, a method to estimate the magnitude to be considered in liquefaction potential assessment is suggested. The impact of earthquake magnitudes on seismic demand for liquefaction is represented by a relationship between the number of uniform shearing cycles and earthquake magnitudes. This relationship is developed by using the magnitude scaling factor suggested by Youd et al. in 2001, later implemented in 2018 Seismic Code of Türkiye as a benchmark. A logarithmic model between liquefaction resistance and number of cycles is applied on 234 acceleration time histories to regress the relationship, such that the model coefficients yield a conditional mean consistent with this benchmark. Then, it was possible to develop an empirical prediction equation for cyclic stress ratio corrected for the event magnitude. This prediction equation was based on the functional form of Akkar and Bommer (2010). The study concludes with a seismic hazard analysis, applying the developed GMPE for generic faults to calculate the seismic stress ratio to be exceeded with a specific probability within a given time frame, so that the final effect of event magnitude can be calculated.

Subject Keywords

Liquefaction, Magnitude scaling factor, Equivalent number of cycles, Ground motion prediction equation, Seismic hazard analysis

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/113516

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis