Optimal capital structure for build-operate-transfer power projects

Arıcı, Erdem
Observing the deficiencies of traditional methods in meeting the demands of today̕s infrastructure development has been motivating countries towards privatization of these sectors. However, due to the differences in these sectors as compared to other businesses, privatization can not be performed without strict regulations. Today, concession agreements like BOT models seem the best way for solving the problems. Financing of concession agreements plays a key role. In Turkey, most BOT projects are financed by capital structure that has a maximum debt ratio, which is allowed by the law. The objective of this study is to examine whether the maximum amount of debt ratio is the optimum amount of debt ratio. Optimization is carried out by analyzing the trade off between benefits of tax shield and the loss due to financial failure as a result of change in leverage, assuming other things are the same. A theoretical framework is developed for the analysis by selecting Adjusted Present Value Method as a financial tool. Energy generation sector in Turkey is analyzed, stock market data in Turkey is used for the analysis, and a bankruptcy prediction model is proposed for BOT projects in Turkey. Finally, by using the theoretical framework, an actual BOT model hydro electric power plant proposal is analyzed for optimization of capital structure.


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Citation Formats
E. Arıcı, “Optimal capital structure for build-operate-transfer power projects,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2003.