Decomposition techniques in energy risk management

Download
2005
Sürücü, Oktay
The ongoing process of deregulation in energy markets changes the market from a monopoly into a complex one, in which large utilities and independent power producers are no longer suppliers with guaranteed returns but enterprisers which have to compete. This competence has forced utilities to improve their efficiency. In effect, they must still manage the challenges of physical delivery while operating in a complex market characterized by significant volatility, volumetric uncertainty and credit risk. In such an environment, risk management gains more importance than ever. In order to manage risk, first it must be measured and then this quantified risk must be utilized optimally. Using stochastic programming to construct a model for an energy company in liberalized markets is useful since it provides a generic framework to model the uncertainties and enable decisions that will perform well. However, the resulting stochastic programming problem is a large-scale one and decomposition techniques are needed to solve them.

Suggestions

Pricing power derivatives: electricity swing options
Aydın, Nadi Serhan; Yıldırak, Şahap Kasırga; Department of Financial Mathematics (2010)
The Swing options are the natural outcomes of the increasing uncertainty in the power markets, which came along with the deregulation process triggered by the UK government’s action in 1990 to privatize the national electricity supply industry. Since then, the ways of handling the risks in the price generation process have been explored extensively. Producer-consumers of the power market felt confident as they were naturally hedged against the price fluctuations surrounding the large consumers. Companies wi...
Time series analysis and forecasting electricity prices in Turkey
Zakeri, Seyed Amir Hamed; Yozgatlıgil, Ceylan; Uğur, Ömür; Department of Statistics (2015)
Due to the liberalization of the electricity market, prices are now determined based on contracts on regulated markets and their behavior is mainly driven by constant supply and demand forces. Power producers and consumers need accurate price forecasting tools in a competitive market. Price forecasts give important information for producers and consumers to plan bidding strategies to maximize their bene ts and utilities. Analysis of hourly electricity prices in Turkey is challenging due to the existence of ...
Yield curve estimation by spline-based models
Baki, İsa; Ergenç, Tanıl; Department of Scientific Computing (2006)
This thesis uses Spline-based model, which was developed by McCulloch, and parsimonious model, which was developed by Nelson-Siegel, to estimate the yield curves of zero-coupon bonds in Turkey. In this thesis, we construct the data by using Turkish secondary government zero-coupon bond data, which contain the data from January 2005 to June 2005. After that, relative performances of models are compared using in-sample goodness of fit. As a result, we see that performance of McCulloch model in fitting yield i...
Modeling and numerical analysis of single droplet drying
Dalmaz, Nesip; Özbelge, H. Önder; Department of Chemical Engineering (2005)
A new single droplet drying model is developed that can be used as a part of computational modeling of a typical spray drier. It is aimed to describe the drying behavior of a single droplet both in constant and falling rate periods using receding evaporation front approach coupled with the utilization of heat and mass transfer equations. A special attention is addressed to develop two different numerical solution methods, namely the Variable Grid Network (VGN) algorithm for constant rate period and the Vari...
Pricing inflation indexed swaps using an extended hjm framework with jump process
Karahan, Ceren; Hayfavi, Azize; Department of Financial Mathematics (2010)
Inflation indexed instruments are designed to help protect investors against the changes in the general level of prices. So, they are frequently preferred by investors and they have become increasingly developing part of the market. In this study, firstly, the HJM model and foreign currency analogy used to price of inflation indexed instruments are investigated. Then, the HJM model is extended with finite number of Poisson process. Finally, under the extended HJM model, a pricing derivation of inflation ind...
Citation Formats
O. Sürücü, “Decomposition techniques in energy risk management,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2005.