A study on the reliability analysis during preliminary design : a rocket motor example

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2006

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Bozkaya, Kenan

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To be competitive in the market, it is very important to design cost effective and reliable products. For this purpose, it is necessary to consider reliability as an integral part of the design procedure. Therefore, reliability which is a design parameter that affects cost and safety of a system should be taken into consideration in early phases since it is very difficult to change design at the later phases. Reliability of a rocket motor can be evaluated by reliability testing but these tests are very expensive and difficult since the tests are destructive and test sample size is determined by the binomial law. Because of the difficulties in reliability testing, in early design phases reliability can be evaluated by using reliability prediction results. This thesis report includes application of probabilistic approach for a solid rocket motor design to evaluate its reliability in preliminary design phase. In this study, it is aimed to assess the solid rocket motor ballistic performance reliability and casing structural reliability, determine important parameters affective on the solid rocket motor reliability and find a new design point to improve the reliability. Variations in dimensions and material properties are considered as the sources of failures and the limit states for acceleration, total impulse and maximum stress in the casing are approximated with response surface method by considering these variations. With the response surface functions, Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess failure probability and distributions of the rocket motor performance. Besides the assessment of the reliability, capability of the response surface functions to estimate the rocket motor performance and effects of the input parameters on the rocket motor performance and performance variation are also examined. By considering the effect of the input parameters, a new design point is proposed to decrease the total probability of failure.

Subject Keywords

Mechanical Engineering.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/2/12607500/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/16375

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

K. Bozkaya, “ A study on the reliability analysis during preliminary design : a rocket motor example,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2006.