Modelling the evolution of demand forecasts in a production-distribution system

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2006

Author

Yücer, Cem Tahsin

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In this thesis, we focus on a forecasting tool, Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE), to model the evolution of forecasts in a production-distribution system. Additive form is performed to represent the evolution process. Variance-Covariance (VCV) matrix is defined to express the forecast updates. The selected demand pattern is stationary and it is normally distributed. It follows an Autoregressive Order-1 (AR(1)) model. Two forecasting procedures are selected to compare the MMFE with. These are MA (Moving average) and ES (Exponential smoothing) methods. A production-distribution model is constructed to represent a two-stage supply chain environment. The performance measures considered in the analyses are the total costs, fill rates and forecast accuracy observed in the operation of the production-distribution system. The goal is to demonstrate the importance of good forecasting in supply chain environments.

Subject Keywords

Engineering Mathematics., Engineering Analysis.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12608109/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/16576

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Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

C. T. Yücer, “Modelling the evolution of demand forecasts in a production-distribution system,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2006.