Probabilistic modeling of failure in rock slopes

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2007

Author

Fadlelmula Fadlelseed, Mohamed Mohieldin

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This study presents the results of probabilistic modeling of plane and wedge types of slope failures, based on the ”Advance First Order Second Moment (AFOSM)” reliability method. In both of those failure types, two different failure criteria namely, Coulomb linear and Barton Bandis non-linear failure criteria are utilized in the development of the probabilistic models. Due to the iterative nature of the AFOSM method, analyzing spreadsheets have been developed in order to carry out the computations. The developed spreadsheets are called “Plane Slope Analyzer (PSA)” and “Wedge Slope Analyzer (WSA)”. The developed probabilistic models and their spreadsheets are verified by investigating the affect of rock and slope parameters such as, ground water level, slope height, cohesion, friction angle, and joint wall compressive strength (JCS) and their distribution types on the reliability index (β), and probability of slope failure (PF). In this study, different probability distributions are used and the inverse transformation formulas of their non-normal variates to their equivalent normal ones are developed as well. In addition, the wedge failure case is also modeled by using system reliability approach and then the results of conventional probability of failure and the system reliability approach are compared.

Subject Keywords

Mining Engineering., Metallurgy.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12608549/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/16942

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

M. M. Fadlelmula Fadlelseed, “Probabilistic modeling of failure in rock slopes,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2007.