Modeling monthly electricity demand in Turkey for 1990-2006

Küçükbahar, Duygu
Factors such as economical development, rapid increase in population and climate change increased electricity demand in Turkey as well as in other countries. Thus, using the correct methods to estimate short, medium and long term electricity demand forms a basis for the countries to develop their energy strategy. In this study, monthly electricity demand of Turkey is estimated. First, the effect of natural gas price and consumption to electricity demand and elasticities are searched with a simple regression model. Although, natural gas is known as a substitute of electricity, natural gas consumption and natural gas over electricity price ratio are found to be nearly inelastic. Second part includes two models and cointegration relation is investigated in nonstationary industry production index, electricity consumption per capita and electricity prices series in the first one. An error correction model is then formed with an additional average temperature variable and 12 months electricity demand is forecasted. In the second one, heating degree-days and cooling degree-days are used instead of the average temperature variable and a new error correction model is formed. The first model performs better than the second one, indicating the seasonality of electricity consumption during a year. The results of both models are also compared with previous studies to investigate the effect of different weather variables.


An intertemporal and spatial network model for Turkish Energy System
Seyhan, Tolga Han; Güven, Yusuf Çağlar; Department of Industrial Engineering (2007)
Turkey, as a recent signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has to adopt policies to restrict greenhouse gas emissions at a time when energy demand is increasing rapidly. We report on an intertemporal, spatial network model representing the energy system that seeks to address the difficult trade-offs involved. We compute and optimal mix of fuels and technologies; considering efficiencies and investments in generation and transmission. The model allows analysis of emis...
Assessment of criteria-rich rankings for decision makers
Özdoğlar, Mehmet Raşit; Azizoğlu, Meral; Department of Industrial Engineering (2010)
Environmental policymaking is a difficult issue for governments. It is desirable to have the decisions based on the results of quantitative and analytical studies. On the other hand, by their very nature, many such decisions have political aspects, whose subtleties are difficult to be captured by quantitative approaches alone. It is left to the political establishments to decide how best to allocate the efforts to improve environmental conditions. In this respect, evaluating the countries by generating envi...
Application of strategic planning methodology to Republic of Turkey Ministry of Finance
Özahçı, Erhan; Şen, Tayyar; Department of Industrial Engineering (2007)
In this study, it is aimed to determine and implement a process based strategic planning methodology for Turkish Ministry of Finance. Proposed methodology has been implemented in Ministry of Finance by a TÜBİTAK supported strategic management project in collaboration with Ministry of Finance Strategy Development Unit (MoF_SDU), TÜSSİDE and a private Consultancy Company. This project was a direct consequence of reforms on Public Financial Management and stipulated by the Laws No. 5018 and 5436 which have bee...
Analysis of a two-echelon multi-item inventory system with postponement
Eryılmaz, Hande; Meral, Fatma Sedef; Department of Industrial Engineering (2010)
Increased product proliferation and global competition are forcing companies within the supply chain to adopt new strategies. Postponement is an effective strategy that allows companies to be agile and cost effective in dealing with the dynamics of global supply chains. Postponement centres around delaying activities in the supply chain until real information about the market is available, which reduces the complexity and uncertainty of dealing with a proliferation of products. A two-echelon divergent suppl...
A complex dynamical systems model of education, research, employment, and sustainable human development
Erdoğan, Ezgi; Azizoğlu, Meral; Department of Industrial Engineering (2010)
Economic events of this era reflect the fact that the value of information and technology has surpassed the value of physical production. This motivates countries to focus on increasing the education levels of citizens. However, policy making about education system and its returns requires dynamical analyses in order to be sustainable. The study aims to investigate the dynamic characteristics of a country-wide education system, in particular, that of Turkey. System Dynamics modeling, which is one of the mos...
Citation Formats
D. Küçükbahar, “Modeling monthly electricity demand in Turkey for 1990-2006,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2008.