Modeling monthly electricity demand in Turkey for 1990-2006

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2008

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Küçükbahar, Duygu

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Factors such as economical development, rapid increase in population and climate change increased electricity demand in Turkey as well as in other countries. Thus, using the correct methods to estimate short, medium and long term electricity demand forms a basis for the countries to develop their energy strategy. In this study, monthly electricity demand of Turkey is estimated. First, the effect of natural gas price and consumption to electricity demand and elasticities are searched with a simple regression model. Although, natural gas is known as a substitute of electricity, natural gas consumption and natural gas over electricity price ratio are found to be nearly inelastic. Second part includes two models and cointegration relation is investigated in nonstationary industry production index, electricity consumption per capita and electricity prices series in the first one. An error correction model is then formed with an additional average temperature variable and 12 months electricity demand is forecasted. In the second one, heating degree-days and cooling degree-days are used instead of the average temperature variable and a new error correction model is formed. The first model performs better than the second one, indicating the seasonality of electricity consumption during a year. The results of both models are also compared with previous studies to investigate the effect of different weather variables.

Subject Keywords

Industrial engineering.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12609318/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/17529

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

D. Küçükbahar, “Modeling monthly electricity demand in Turkey for 1990-2006,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2008.