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The bilateral j-curve of turkey for consumption, capital and intermediate goods

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2008
Keskin, Gizem
This study analyzes the J-curve effect for Turkey’s bilateral trade with her three main trading partners; Germany, USA and Italy, for consumption, capital and intermediate goods. The bounds test is used to test for cointegration among the trade balance, the real bilateral exchange rate, the real domestic income and the real foreign income. The results show that the real exchange rate is not a significant determinant of trade in the short run. In the long run, it is significant only for trade with USA in consumption goods. Moreover, J-curve does not exist for Turkey’s bilateral trade with Germany, USA, and Italy in consumption, capital and intermediate goods. The results support existence of a link between the bilateral trade balances and the real domestic income both in the short run and the long run.