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The information content of earnings and systematic risk in changing economic conjecture : the Turkish case

Aksoy, Fatma
This thesis analyses the information content of inflation adjusted financial statements for investors and the informational value of accounting earnings and systematic risk in explaining stock returns in Turkey. Information content of inflation accounting is tested by using event study methodology. Results show that, contrary to 2002, there exist abnormal returns/(losses) in the period surrounding the announcement of 2004 financial statements. However, due to non-company specific political and economic conditions around the announcement days, we cannot precisely state that either the inflation adjustment or the political forces cause the abnormal price activity at the time of research. Second part of the thesis is based on the regression study methodology which shows the significance of accounting earnings and firms’ systematic risk in explaining stock returns, in different economic conjectures. Results show that earnings have informational value for 2003 and 2004 fiscal years while systematic risk is significant in the period before 2003. This may imply that earnings become significant in good periods of the economy while the systematic risk becomes significant when the economy is in recession or recovery periods.