Stock market liquidity analysis: evidence from the İstanbul Stock Exchange

Özdemir, Duygu
The purpose of this thesis is to identify the factors playing a key role in the determination of the Turkish stock market liquidity in aggregate terms in a time series context and discuss the joint dynamics of the market-wide liquidity with its selected determinants and the trade volume. The main determinants tested are the level of return, the return volatility and the monetary stance of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. The expected positive relationship between the liquidity and the return is confirmed, while the negative effect of the volatility on liquidity appears one-week later. The behavior of various liquidity variables are also examined around the macroeconomic data announcement dates, during the 2008 financial crisis, and after the tick size change in the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). The time series dynamics between the trade volume, return, volatility and the liquidity are put forward within the Vector Autoregression analysis framework. The GARCH modeling of the return series, which is an input to the liquidity model estimations, is a byproduct of this thesis. It is observed that the return series exhibits volatility clustering, persistence, leverage effects and mean reversion. In addition, while the level of the ISE market return decreased, the volatility of the return increased during the 2008 crisis. Accordingly, EGARCH model assuming normally distributed error terms and allowing a shift in the variance during the crisis period is chosen as the best model.
Citation Formats
D. Özdemir, “Stock market liquidity analysis: evidence from the İstanbul Stock Exchange ,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2011.