Temperature in Turkey and Turkish day ahead electricity market prices : modeling and forecasting

Download
2012
Ünlü, Kamil Demirberk
One of the key steps of the liberalization of the Turkish electricity market has been the estab- lishment of PMUM (Turkish day ahead electricity market). The aim of this study is to explore the dynamics of electricity prices observed in this market and their relation with temperature observed in Turkey. The electricity price process is studied as a univariate process and the same process is studied along with temperature together as a two-dimensional process. We give a fairly complete model of temperature. We observe that the electricity prices in Turkey exhibit many of the features that similar prices exhibit in other world markets. In particular, Turkish day ahead prices are seasonal; every year the price seems to follow a path similar to the one years preceding it. To simplify our analysis we focus our study to a 35 day pe- riod where every year the prices show a relatively simple behavior. We study the effects of the fluctuations in temperature in this period on the fluctutations in the day ahead electricity price.

Suggestions

Mathematical modeling and solution approaches for balancing Turkish electricity day ahead market
Yörükoğlu, Sinan; Avşar, Zeynep Müge; Kat, Bora; Department of Industrial Engineering (2015)
In the Turkish Electricity Market, electricity trade is carried out largely through Bilateral Agreements and the emerging short term imbalances are settled in the Balancing Power Market, particularly the Day Ahead Market. In the Day Ahead Market, the participants submit their bids for each hour of the next day in the form of price-quantity pairs and the Market Operator evaluates those bids using an optimization tool. After the evaluation of the bids, a Market Clearing Price at every hour of the next day and...
Statistical analysis of electricity energy consumption with respect to provinces in Turkey
Çakmak, Mehmet; Yozgatlıgil, Ceylan; İlk Dağ, Özlem; Department of Statistics (2014)
In recent years, the economic developments in Turkey, rapid increase in population and industrialization and such factors have led to an increment in the demand for electricity in Turkey. Therefore; the accurate estimation of electricity consumption will be important in determining the country's energy strategy. The purpose of this study is to forecast the future electricity energy consumption by acquiring the most consistent and accurate forecast models of the provinces in Turkey by using the fixed effects...
The liberalization of the Turkish electricity sector: a simulation analysis
Bahçe, Serdal; Taymaz, Erol; Department of Economics (2003)
The Turkish Electricity System has gone through a liberalization process. This study aims to analyze the possible outcomes of this process by using a simulation framework. First, we look at the basics of new market design and focus on international evidence. Second, the theoretical and empirical literature about the liberalization of the electricity sector is reviewed. Then, the structure of our model, Turkish Electricity System Simulation Model (TESS), is summarized. In this model, it is assumed that a spo...
Day ahead markets
Kütaruk, Kaan; Sevaioğlu, Osman; Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2013)
Day Ahead Market is a mechanism in electricity markets for adjusting the supply-demand energy and capacity balance by providing bids one day before the clearing. Market operator needs to know the available energy and capacity for reaching minimal-cost supply-demand balance one day earlier than the market has been cleared. Minimizing cost of the electricity and capacity during 24 hours of a day requires accurate information concerning the available electricity and capacity. Day-ahead marketing activity is pe...
Short term electricity price forecasting in Turkish electricity market
Özgüner, Erdem; Güven, Ali Nezih; Tör, O. Bülent; Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2012)
With the aim for higher economical efficiency, considerable and radical changes have occurred in the worldwide electricity sector since the beginning of 1980s. By that time, the electricity sector has been controlled by the state-owned vertically integrated monopolies which manage and control all generation, transmission, distribution and retail activities and the consumers buy electricity with a price set by these monopolies in that system. After the liberalization and restructuring of the electricity powe...
Citation Formats
K. D. Ünlü, “Temperature in Turkey and Turkish day ahead electricity market prices : modeling and forecasting,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2012.