Temperature in Turkey and Turkish day ahead electricity market prices : modeling and forecasting

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Date

2012

Author

Ünlü, Kamil Demirberk

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One of the key steps of the liberalization of the Turkish electricity market has been the estab- lishment of PMUM (Turkish day ahead electricity market). The aim of this study is to explore the dynamics of electricity prices observed in this market and their relation with temperature observed in Turkey. The electricity price process is studied as a univariate process and the same process is studied along with temperature together as a two-dimensional process. We give a fairly complete model of temperature. We observe that the electricity prices in Turkey exhibit many of the features that similar prices exhibit in other world markets. In particular, Turkish day ahead prices are seasonal; every year the price seems to follow a path similar to the one years preceding it. To simplify our analysis we focus our study to a 35 day pe- riod where every year the prices show a relatively simple behavior. We study the effects of the fluctuations in temperature in this period on the fluctutations in the day ahead electricity price.

Subject Keywords

Electric power consumption, Electric power distribution., Weather forecasting, Autoregression (Statistics)., Regression analysis.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12614701/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/22015

Collections

Graduate School of Applied Mathematics, Thesis

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Citation Formats

K. D. Ünlü, “Temperature in Turkey and Turkish day ahead electricity market prices : modeling and forecasting,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2012.