Statistical analysis of electricity energy consumption with respect to provinces in Turkey

Çakmak, Mehmet
In recent years, the economic developments in Turkey, rapid increase in population and industrialization and such factors have led to an increment in the demand for electricity in Turkey. Therefore; the accurate estimation of electricity consumption will be important in determining the country's energy strategy. The purpose of this study is to forecast the future electricity energy consumption by acquiring the most consistent and accurate forecast models of the provinces in Turkey by using the fixed effects, random effects and dynamic panel data analysis methods with electricity consumption values of provinces of Turkey between the years of 1999-2011. Forecasting results suggest that the random effects panel data analysis is the best forecasting model among three methods providing the most accurate results.


Mathematical modeling and solution approaches for balancing Turkish electricity day ahead market
Yörükoğlu, Sinan; Avşar, Zeynep Müge; Kat, Bora; Department of Industrial Engineering (2015)
In the Turkish Electricity Market, electricity trade is carried out largely through Bilateral Agreements and the emerging short term imbalances are settled in the Balancing Power Market, particularly the Day Ahead Market. In the Day Ahead Market, the participants submit their bids for each hour of the next day in the form of price-quantity pairs and the Market Operator evaluates those bids using an optimization tool. After the evaluation of the bids, a Market Clearing Price at every hour of the next day and...
Renewable energy planning in Turkey with a focus on hydropower
Gök, Emre; Kentel Erdoğan, Elçin; Department of Civil Engineering (2013)
As a country highly dependent on foreign fossil fuel sources, Turkey experiences many problems due to its increasing energy consumption in parallel with increasing population and rapid economic growth. Foreign fossil fuel dependency adversely affects sustainable development of the country by hindering its economic development. Because of this, renewable energy sources of the country should be evaluated and developed as soon as possible. Prioritization of the development of renewable energy sources to increa...
Short term electricity price forecasting in Turkish electricity market
Özgüner, Erdem; Güven, Ali Nezih; Tör, O. Bülent; Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2012)
With the aim for higher economical efficiency, considerable and radical changes have occurred in the worldwide electricity sector since the beginning of 1980s. By that time, the electricity sector has been controlled by the state-owned vertically integrated monopolies which manage and control all generation, transmission, distribution and retail activities and the consumers buy electricity with a price set by these monopolies in that system. After the liberalization and restructuring of the electricity powe...
Temperature in Turkey and Turkish day ahead electricity market prices : modeling and forecasting
Ünlü, Kamil Demirberk; Sezer, Ali Devin; Department of Financial Mathematics (2012)
One of the key steps of the liberalization of the Turkish electricity market has been the estab- lishment of PMUM (Turkish day ahead electricity market). The aim of this study is to explore the dynamics of electricity prices observed in this market and their relation with temperature observed in Turkey. The electricity price process is studied as a univariate process and the same process is studied along with temperature together as a two-dimensional process. We give a fairly complete model of temperature. ...
Long term electrical supply-demand balance of Turkey (2013-2023)
Polater, Hüseyin Murat; Sevaioğlu, Osman; Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2013)
In this thesis long term supply demand balance of Turkey is studied. Initially long term electrical energy demand and peak power demand forecasts are made. For forecasting, two different methods are used. First method is Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and second method is Time Series Method. Then electrical energy demand forecast by sector is done. Finally by considering the construction times of new generation plants, electrical energy production capacity and peak power production capacity projections ar...
Citation Formats
M. Çakmak, “Statistical analysis of electricity energy consumption with respect to provinces in Turkey,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2014.