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Statistical analysis of electricity energy consumption with respect to provinces in Turkey

Çakmak, Mehmet
In recent years, the economic developments in Turkey, rapid increase in population and industrialization and such factors have led to an increment in the demand for electricity in Turkey. Therefore; the accurate estimation of electricity consumption will be important in determining the country's energy strategy. The purpose of this study is to forecast the future electricity energy consumption by acquiring the most consistent and accurate forecast models of the provinces in Turkey by using the fixed effects, random effects and dynamic panel data analysis methods with electricity consumption values of provinces of Turkey between the years of 1999-2011. Forecasting results suggest that the random effects panel data analysis is the best forecasting model among three methods providing the most accurate results.