Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Ilgaz - Abant segments of North Anatolian fault using improved seismic source models

Levendoğlu, Mert
Bolu-Ilgaz region was damaged by several large earthquakes in the last century and the structural damage was substantial especially after the 1944 and 1999 earthquakes. The objective of this study is to build the seismic source characterization model for the rupture zone of 1944 Bolu-Gerede earthquake and perform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the region. One of the major improvements over the previous PSHA practices accomplished in this study is the development of advanced seismic source models in terms of source geometry and reoccurrence relations. Geometry of the linear fault segments are determined and incorporated with the help of available fault maps. Composite magnitude distribution model is used to properly represent the characteristic behavior of NAF without an additional background zone. Fault segments, rupture sources, rupture scenarios and fault rupture models are determined using the WG-2003 terminology. The Turkey-Adjusted NGAW1 (Gülerce et al., 2013) prediction models are employed for the first time on NAF system. The results of the study is presented in terms of hazard curves, deaggregation of the hazard and uniform hazard spectrum for four main locations in the region to provide basis for evaluation of the seismic design of special structures in the area. Hazard maps of the region for rock site conditions and for the proposed site characterization model are provided to allow the user perform site-specific hazard assessment for local site conditions and develop site-specific design spectrum. The results of the study will be useful to manage the future seismic hazard in the region.


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Citation Formats
M. Levendoğlu, “Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Ilgaz - Abant segments of North Anatolian fault using improved seismic source models,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2013.