Demand, supply and partial equilibrium analysis of electricity energy pricing for Turkish market

Özdemir, Asena
Electricity energy is a fundamental commodity for all sectors of the economy. For this reason, estimating the factors and their impacts on electricity consumption and production are important to maintain sustainability in electricity energy market. The aim of the study is to determine the association between main macroeconomic and sectorial indicators with electricity consumption and production. For estimating electricity demand, annual electricity consumption, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), electricity transmission and distribution losses, industry value added, annual average electricity prices and urbanization ratio are used as variables. On the other hand, for estimating electricity supply variables annual electricity production, gross profit and labor supply in electricity sector, electricity transmission and distribution losses, annual average electricity prices, GDP and investments in electricity sector are used. At the first time impact on each series is investigated by using time series approach. Econometric models for both electricity supply and demand are estimated through Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Autoregressive Distributed Lags Approach (ARDL) by using annual data for the period from 1970 to 2010. Within ARDL procedure; vector error correction models, impulse-response functions and variance decomposition analyses are performed to detect the degree of association among the variables and their sensitivity to the mean reverting fluctuations. Furthermore, by using estimated demand and supply equations, partial equilibrium analysis are performed and equilibrium annual average electricity prices are extracted and compared to actual prices by using statistical measurement methods.


Short term electricity price forecasting in Turkish electricity market
Özgüner, Erdem; Güven, Ali Nezih; Tör, O. Bülent; Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2012)
With the aim for higher economical efficiency, considerable and radical changes have occurred in the worldwide electricity sector since the beginning of 1980s. By that time, the electricity sector has been controlled by the state-owned vertically integrated monopolies which manage and control all generation, transmission, distribution and retail activities and the consumers buy electricity with a price set by these monopolies in that system. After the liberalization and restructuring of the electricity powe...
On the parametric and nonparametric prediction methods for electricity load forecasting
Erişen, Esra; İyigün, Cem; Department of Industrial Engineering (2013)
Accurate electricity load forecasting is of great importance in deregulated electricity markets. Market participants can reap significant financial benefits by improving their electricity load forecasts. Electricity load exhibits a complex time series structure with nonlinear relationships between the variables. Hence, new models with higher capabilities to capture such nonlinear relationships need to be developed and tested. In this thesis, we present a parametric and a nonparametric method for short-term ...
Stochastic wind-thermal generation coordination for Turkish day-ahead electricity market /
Aydoğdu, Aycan; Güven, Ali Nezih; Tör, Osman Bülent; Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2014)
Uncertainties in wind power forecast, day-ahead and imbalance prices for the next day possess a great deal of risk to the profit of generation companies (GENCOs) participating in a day-ahead electricity market. GENCOs are exposed to imbalance penalties in the balancing market for any mismatch between their day-ahead power bids and real-time generations. Proper coordination of wind generation with thermal generation reduces this risk associated with wind uncertainty. This thesis proposes an optimal bidding a...
Capacity determination of pumped storage projects using market electricity prices
Çetinkaya, Semih; Tiğrek, Şahnaz; Department of Civil Engineering (2014)
Renewable and clean energy is gaining more importance after the nuclear disasters with increasing awareness of depletion of fossil fuels, concerns about the global warming and increasing energy demand. However, intermittency of renewable resources is the biggest challenge in the restructuring world energy market. Energy has to be stored against sudden changes in the production and consumption. In order to keep the continuity of the energy supply, pumped storage can be a remedy. Therefore, pumped storage pro...
Electricity load and price forecasting of Turkish electricity markets
Kalay, Oğuz; Karasözen, Bülent; Department of Financial Mathematics (2018)
Progress on the forecasting techniques of market clearing price (MCP) and system marginal price (SMP) conveys millions of dollars profit to the electricity generator corporations. Therefore, more accurate forecasting system on total electricity load (TEL) and market prices enhances profits of the market participants. System of the Turkish Electricity Market has three interdependent platforms; Day Ahead Market (DAM), Intra-Day Market (IDM) and Balancing Power Market (BPM). MCP and SMP are the most important ...
Citation Formats
A. Özdemir, “Demand, supply and partial equilibrium analysis of electricity energy pricing for Turkish market,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2013.