Electricity load and price forecasting of Turkish electricity markets

Download
index.pdf
2018
Kalay, Oğuz
Show full item record
358
views
160
downloads
Progress on the forecasting techniques of market clearing price (MCP) and system marginal price (SMP) conveys millions of dollars profit to the electricity generator corporations. Therefore, more accurate forecasting system on total electricity load (TEL) and market prices enhances profits of the market participants. System of the Turkish Electricity Market has three interdependent platforms; Day Ahead Market (DAM), Intra-Day Market (IDM) and Balancing Power Market (BPM). MCP and SMP are the most important decision variables at power distribution strategies of companies, which are determined by DAM and BPM respectively. The trading activity should be estimated a day in advance for the delivery of loads on the market operator side, optimum output and best trading strategies on the power generator company side. Wind as a renewable energy source affects MCP. Our models contain the wind energy as a predictor, because wind energy is the most important renewable sources for energy production. The aim of this thesis is to estimate wind energy production using the numerical weather predictions (NWP) and achieving more accurate prices compared to the traditional methods used in the market. Estimation of renewable energy sources like the wind energy is more complicated then the other energy sources. They requireaccurate weather forecasts for accurate estimation. Because the prediction of wind is complicated, the estimation of wind energy production affects MCP forecasting values and real time MCP values so that they become more volatile. Some regression models are developed and compared on MATLAB programme to predict MCP, wind energy production and TEL. Hourly estimations of the TEL, and predictions for average of six-hour periods MCP and wind energy production for the next day, can be used in investment strategies of the market participants, like energy consumers and producers. Moreover, the Turkish Electricity Transmission Company( TETC), which manages the balancing power market as the system operator, can improve its planning schedule and take necessary precautions about imbalances a day in advance the forecasting results of TEL
Electric power consumption, Energy consumption, Renewable energy sources., Power resources, Weather forecasting., Wind power.
http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12622824/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/27827
Graduate School of Applied Mathematics, Thesis

Suggestions

Stochastic wind-thermal generation coordination for Turkish day-ahead electricity market /
Aydoğdu, Aycan; Güven, Ali Nezih; Tör, Osman Bülent; Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2014)
Uncertainties in wind power forecast, day-ahead and imbalance prices for the next day possess a great deal of risk to the profit of generation companies (GENCOs) participating in a day-ahead electricity market. GENCOs are exposed to imbalance penalties in the balancing market for any mismatch between their day-ahead power bids and real-time generations. Proper coordination of wind generation with thermal generation reduces this risk associated with wind uncertainty. This thesis proposes an optimal bidding a...
Demand, supply and partial equilibrium analysis of electricity energy pricing for Turkish market
Özdemir, Asena; Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe; Department of Actuarial Sciences (2013)
Electricity energy is a fundamental commodity for all sectors of the economy. For this reason, estimating the factors and their impacts on electricity consumption and production are important to maintain sustainability in electricity energy market. The aim of the study is to determine the association between main macroeconomic and sectorial indicators with electricity consumption and production. For estimating electricity demand, annual electricity consumption, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), electricity tran...
On the parametric and nonparametric prediction methods for electricity load forecasting
Erişen, Esra; İyigün, Cem; Department of Industrial Engineering (2013)
Accurate electricity load forecasting is of great importance in deregulated electricity markets. Market participants can reap significant financial benefits by improving their electricity load forecasts. Electricity load exhibits a complex time series structure with nonlinear relationships between the variables. Hence, new models with higher capabilities to capture such nonlinear relationships need to be developed and tested. In this thesis, we present a parametric and a nonparametric method for short-term ...
A Policy design model for market formation of solar and wind electricity generation in Turkey
Erden Topal, Yelda; Erdil, Erkan; Department of Science and Technology Policy Studies (2016)
The aim of this study is to design technology policies for diffusion of solar and wind electricity generation technologies by analyzing the market formation dynamics from the perspective of key actors in the framework of technological innovation system approach. For this purpose, qualitative data is collected through 57 face-to-face semi-structured interviews with the key actors from private and non-private sectors who are engaged in economic activities of electricity generation, regulation of the market, c...
Optimal bidding strategies for day ahead electricity market by risk constrained stochastic price based unit commitment
Shileh Baf, Amir; Ulusoy, İlkay; Tör, Osman Bülent; Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2014)
Optimum bidding curves for a generating company to take part in the day ahead energy market are developed throughout this thesis. Continuous aim of the generating company to maximize its profit will be partly fulfilled by optimizing its bidding in the market. Price uncertainty has always been a major issue for proper bidding and maximizing the payoff. In contrast with traditional Price Based Unit Commitment which is only dependent on a good forecast of energy prices, stochastic programming takes care of the...
Citation Formats
O. Kalay, “Electricity load and price forecasting of Turkish electricity markets,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2018.
METU IIS - Integrated Information Service open@metu.edu.tr