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Electricity load and price forecasting of Turkish electricity markets

Kalay, Oğuz
Progress on the forecasting techniques of market clearing price (MCP) and system marginal price (SMP) conveys millions of dollars profit to the electricity generator corporations. Therefore, more accurate forecasting system on total electricity load (TEL) and market prices enhances profits of the market participants. System of the Turkish Electricity Market has three interdependent platforms; Day Ahead Market (DAM), Intra-Day Market (IDM) and Balancing Power Market (BPM). MCP and SMP are the most important decision variables at power distribution strategies of companies, which are determined by DAM and BPM respectively. The trading activity should be estimated a day in advance for the delivery of loads on the market operator side, optimum output and best trading strategies on the power generator company side. Wind as a renewable energy source affects MCP. Our models contain the wind energy as a predictor, because wind energy is the most important renewable sources for energy production. The aim of this thesis is to estimate wind energy production using the numerical weather predictions (NWP) and achieving more accurate prices compared to the traditional methods used in the market. Estimation of renewable energy sources like the wind energy is more complicated then the other energy sources. They requireaccurate weather forecasts for accurate estimation. Because the prediction of wind is complicated, the estimation of wind energy production affects MCP forecasting values and real time MCP values so that they become more volatile. Some regression models are developed and compared on MATLAB programme to predict MCP, wind energy production and TEL. Hourly estimations of the TEL, and predictions for average of six-hour periods MCP and wind energy production for the next day, can be used in investment strategies of the market participants, like energy consumers and producers. Moreover, the Turkish Electricity Transmission Company( TETC), which manages the balancing power market as the system operator, can improve its planning schedule and take necessary precautions about imbalances a day in advance the forecasting results of TEL