Numerical modeling of 3 february 2002 Çay earthquake : ground motion simulation and intensity distribution

Can, Gizem
In seismically active regions strong ground motion estimation is essential for several purposes ranging from seismic design and analyses to disaster management. In regions of sparse seismic networks or seismic activity with long return periods, simulations become essential. This is particularly true when not only the peak ground motion parameters but the full time series of acceleration is required for earthquake engineering purposes. These simulations provide not only the earthquake engineering parameters but also give insight into the source, path and site effects observed during earthquakes. In this study, 3 February 2002 Çay earthquake is simulated with the stochastic finite-fault method. This mainshock could only be recorded at four strong ground motion stations within an epicentral distance of 200 km. Thus, first it is aimed to simulate these sparse records and validate the simulation parameters at the stations. Then, a regional prediction of potential ground motions that occurred during the mainshock is generated. Finally, through an empirical relationship proposed for Turkey, a simulated intensity distribution is also obtained and compared to the observed intensity and damage data. The results indicate that the mainshock is simulated effectively. This study and similar studies can be further developed and employed to assess potential ground motions in anticipated earthquakes such that necessary measures can be taken prior to large events to minimize future seismic losses in general.


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Citation Formats
G. Can, “Numerical modeling of 3 february 2002 Çay earthquake : ground motion simulation and intensity distribution ,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2014.