Decarbonization of turkish public electricity sector: adopting sustainable energy portfolio

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2014
Şahin, Hasret
Sustainable energy settles in the core of the economic activities since climate change issues have arisen. Decarbonization strategies of the electricity sector target to reach sustainable energy by liberalization movements. To adopt the sustainable energy portfolio similar to European Union ones’, Turkey took a step in decarbonization of the Turkish electricity sector by beginning with the public electricity sector. In this study, the decarbonization process of Turkish public electricity sector is projected under alternative scenarios by using the integrated model software tool, Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP), from 2001 to 2050. Liberalization impacts on GHG emissions of Turkish public electricity sector and energy portfolio management after privatization are evaluated with the perspective of 3Es (Energy, Environment and Economy) in this study. The private electricity sector is exempt from the modeling. There are several methodologies applied at each stage of this study. Linear regression is implemented in the baseline of models such as forecasting the future resource price and electricity demand for various sectors. The model applied IPCC Tier-1 method placed in LEAP to calculate GHG emissions in the privatization period of the electricity generation sector. Levelized cost of electricity generation is the methodology used in social cost calculations. For analyzing the privatization impacts of GHG emissions, Business-As-Usual (BAU) Reference scenario, stating the current strategies in the public electricity sector, and No Privatization (NP) scenario, preserving the 2012 installed electricity generation capacity, are applied. Alternative, sustainable energy portfolios are offered in the Nuclear Energy (NE) and Renewable Energy (RE) scenarios. NE portfolio involves the 3rd and 4th nuclear power plants contrary to RE scenario, which targets the diversification in potential renewable energy sources. In conclusion, the government gets a benefit increase of 109.96 billion TL by implementing privatization in Turkish public electricity generation over the BAU scenario. In addition, cumulative GHG emission savings in BAU, NE and RE scenarios is 2.2 GtCO2eq. compared to NP scenario. The cost reduction per tCO2eq. are 47.76 TL in RE scenario and 45.57 TL in NE scenario. RE scenario distinguishes itself by its low projected costs and its diversified energy portfolio, which are complementary to 3E perspective of the sustainability.

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Citation Formats
H. Şahin, “Decarbonization of turkish public electricity sector: adopting sustainable energy portfolio,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2014.