The Impact of modality and feedback on reasoning about base rate neglect problems in behavioral and eye tracking studies: a cognitive science perspective

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2014

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Verim, Burcu

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The base rate fallacy is a type of reasoning error which is rooted in judgements of humans about the likelihood of some state or some event on prior beliefs and intuitions about the representativeness of the problem while neglecting base rate probabilities of this state or event. So far, base rate neglect problems have been presented in the verbal modality, in the form of story scripts. The purpose of this study is to investigate to what extent the different modalities (verbal vs. graphical) have an effect on reasoning about these problems via providing random sampling and feedback. Eye-tracking data, reaction times and accuracy rates of judgments will be measured. It is hypothesized that providing the participants feedback for questions about frequency distributions along with the direct experience of random sampling will cause a decrease in the base-rate neglect. The results indicated a significant difference between the three experimental groups. This study has implications for education in terms of multi-modal teaching, learning, and reasoning.

Subject Keywords

Uncertainty., Reasoning., Visual perception., Interactive multimedia., Computer-assisted instruction.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12617918/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/24049

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Graduate School of Informatics, Thesis

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Citation Formats

B. Verim, “The Impact of modality and feedback on reasoning about base rate neglect problems in behavioral and eye tracking studies: a cognitive science perspective,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2014.