Dynamical aspects of decision making under uncertainty

Taşkın, Kemal
Decision making is defined as the mental process of choosing among a set of alternatives. Although several aspects of decision making have been investigated so far in cognitive science, dynamics of this process as a whole remained to be studied in detail. In this context, we investigated the effects of consecutive decisions on the current decision in a decision making task under uncertainty. In the attempt of elaborating these effects, we analyzed responses of participants to risky choices in two experiments by two different approaches. In the first experiment, in order to understand participants’ physiological expressions under risky choices, we utilized TOBII T120 eye-tracker and collected pupillary responses of participants. In the second experiment, we collected participants’ response times to given decisions. We analyzed our results with a slightly modified version of Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART). Participants were also subjected to a survey, DOSPERT, prior to the experiments to monitor and distinguish their individual risk taking attitudes. In addition, in two supplementary experiments using Cups Task and Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT), particular aspects of the proposed system were shown to generalize beyond BART. Finally, a simulation was also developed and run in order to elaborate on whether participants’ decision strategies indicated a learning of the task. Our thorough analysis of participants’ responses and the results of the simulation indicated a dynamic system consisting of momentary risk taking and risk aversive states. Participants’ pupil dilation magnitudes were found to be predictable from this dynamical model, abstracted from their consecutive decisions. Natural risk attitudes, extracted from the survey had no statistically significant effect on the results. Our study indicated that risk taking states have important roles on the understanding of decision making tasks. In summary, our findings suggests a model that fuses emotional and cognitive aspects within risky uncertain decisions.


Interactive outranking approaches for multicriteria decision-making problems with imprecise information
Özerol, G; Karasakal, Esra (Informa UK Limited, 2008-9)
PROMETHEE is a powerful method, which can solve many multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problems. It involves sophisticated preference modelling techniques but requires too much a priori precise information about parameter values (such as criterion weights and thresholds). In this paper, we consider a MCDM problem where alternatives are evaluated on several conflicting criteria, and the criterion weights and/or thresholds are imprecise or unknown to the decision maker (DM). We build robust outranking ...
Neural correlates of purchasing behavior in the prefrontal cortex an optical brain imaging study
Çakır, Murat Perit; Çakar, Tuna (null; 2015-07-23)
Existing neuroimaging studies in decision making predominantly employ the fMRI method. Despite its superior spatial resolution, fMRI is an expensive and impractical neuroimaging technology for purchasing behavior studies in the field. This study aims to explore the role of prefrontal cortex during purchasing behavior by utilizing functional near-infrared (fNIR) spectroscopy; a low-cost, non-invasive and portable optical brain imaging methodology. The findings suggest that fNIRS can be effectively used for d...
Transportation interval situations and related games
PALANCI, Osman; ALPARSLAN GÖK, Sırma Zeynep; OLGUN, MEHMET ONUR; Weber, Gerhard Wilhelm (2016-01-01)
Basically, uncertainty is present in almost every real-world situation, it is influencing and questioning our decisions. In this paper, we analyze transportation interval games corresponding to transportation interval situations. In those situations, it may affect the optimal amount of goods and consequently whether and how much of a product is transported from a producer to a retailer. Firstly, we introduce the interval Shapley value of a game arising from a transportation situation under uncertainty. Seco...
Combining data and meta-analysis to build Bayesian networks for clinical decision support
Yet, Barbaros; Rasmussen, Todd E.; Tai, Nigel R. M.; Marsh, D. William R. (2014-12-01)
Complex clinical decisions require the decision maker to evaluate multiple factors that may interact with each other. Many clinical studies, however, report 'univariate' relations between a single factor and outcome. Such univariate statistics are often insufficient to provide useful support for complex clinical decisions even when they are pooled using meta-analysis. More useful decision support could be provided by evidence-based models that take the interaction between factors into account. In this paper...
Further Support for Responsibility in Different Obsessive-Compulsive Symptoms in Turkish Adolescents and Young Adults
Yorulmaz, Orcun; Altin, Muejgan; Karanci, Nuray (Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2008-10-01)
According to the cognitive model, an inflated sense of responsibility is an important cognitive mediator both in the development and maintenance of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Empirical findings assign differential roles to responsibility in different kinds of obsessive-compulsive (OC) symptoms. However, findings that suggested a different function for responsibility revealed the need for an operational definition of responsibility and its multi-factorial factorial structure. Few studies have exami...
Citation Formats
K. Taşkın, “Dynamical aspects of decision making under uncertainty,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2016.