Flexibility modelling of natural gas contracts: İstanbul case

Download
index.pdf
2016
Yazıcı, Caner Fuad
Show full item record
211
views
66
downloads
Natural gas is one of the main energy source in the world and plays an important role in energy demand. The liberalization process in the natural gas market has shifted the focus on the Local Distribution Companies (LDCs) which make the procurement and transportation decisions. The decisions such as the pipeline sales, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) sales, other sources of natural gas procurement, transportation and storage opportunities provide the LDCs an opportunity to trade the natural gas in a least-costs manner. It also makes the portfolio selection more complex for LDCs. The LDCs will consider other factors such as supply reliability, price uncertainty, demand uncertainty and other uncertain costs in a liberalized natural gas market. This study aims to develop an algorithm based on all contractual and technical real-world constraints for a gas import/wholesale company in the concept of flexibility. The methodology is applied to portfolio of contracts to produce the optimal amount of purchases and rates for the long term natural gas agreements, spot natural gas purchases, natural gas storage use levels and LNG purchases based on a real life case under various commitments such as Monthly Contract Quantity (MCQ) and Annual Contract Quantity (ACQ). Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) is applied to the natural gas supply to determine the pattern of the future demand by including factors like heating degree days (HDD), cooling degree days (CDD) and previous gas supply realizations. The output of the proposed methodology enables LDCs to develop criteria on producing the optimal future natural gas purchases depending on different oil scenarios proposed by World Energy Outlook (WEO) report, World Bank (WB) oil price forecasts and a stochastic oil price model (ARIMA) based on historical development of oil prices. A real life case study is applied to İstanbul which is a highly industrialized and populated metropolitan in Turkey. The data sets considering the natural gas demand were taken from İGDAŞ. The long term gas purchase price curves for different Take-or-Pay (ToP) rates are derived to guide the LDCs on their willingness to pay for long term natural gas contracts. LDCs assumed to act as a main supplier in this thesis.
Natural gas., Gas companies., Multivariate analysis., Energy consumption., Regression analysis., Energy consumption
http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12619981/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/25643
Graduate School of Applied Mathematics, Thesis

Suggestions

Fluid-CO2 injection impact in a geothermal reservoir: Evaluation with 3-D reactive transport modeling
AKIN, TAYLAN; Baser, Ali; Saracoglu, Onder; Akın, Serhat (2022-01-01)
Geothermal energy is commonly recognized as an environmentally friendly source of energy. However, geothermal fluids have unusually high CO2 content, particularly, in carbonated geothermal reservoirs. An efficient method to mitigate the CO2 emissions of geothermal power plants is to re-inject the captured CO2 with the effluent fluid to mineralize mainly into calcite under reservoir conditions (e.g., reservoir temperatures ranging from 200 to 220 degrees C). One of the major concerns about the re-injection o...
Numerical simulations of gas production from Class 1 hydrate and Class 3 hydrate in the Nile Delta of the Mediterranean Sea
MEREY, ŞÜKRÜ; Longinos, Sotirios Nik (Elsevier BV, 2018-04-01)
Gas hydrate reservoirs are considered as near-future energy resources in the world. As well as the many places in the world, there is also gas hydrate potential in the Mediterranean Sea. In this study, by using the literature data, it was aimed to understand whether the Mediterranean Sea includes necessary parameters for producible gas hydrate reservoirs. It was shown that the Mediterranean Sea contains all of these parameters (source gas, appropriate pressure and temperature, coarse sand potential, etc.). ...
GIS-based site selection methodology for hybrid renewable energy systems: A case study from western Turkey
Aydin, Nazli Yonca; Kentel Erdoğan, Elçin; Duzgun, H. Sebnem (Elsevier BV, 2013-06-01)
Renewable energy sources are presently being considered as alternatives to fossil fuels, because they are perpetual, environmentally friendly, and release negligible amounts of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere while producing energy. A disadvantage of renewable energy systems, however, is that continuous energy generation is not possible by using only one type of renewable energy system, since renewable energy resources depend on climate and weather conditions. Two or more renewable energy systems can be ...
Daily natural gas consumption prediction by MARS and CMARS models for residential users in Ankara
Yılmaz, Yavuz; Weber, Gerhard Wilhelm; Department of Scientific Computing (2015)
Energy efficient construction and operation of modern energy transmission and distribution systems is one of the major challenging problems in engineering area. Prior to every kind of natural gas related study, regardless of their financial or engineering features, demand forecast figures should be seen. Decision making of natural gas investment planning and operation in a city, region or country are highly important engineering problems that have very important economic effects. Determination of the total ...
Data mining-based power generation forecast at wind power plants
Özkan, Mehmet Barış; Karagöz, Pınar; Department of Computer Engineering (2014)
As a result of rapid depletion of non-renewable energy resources, the importance of the e efficient utilization of renewable energy sources has increased all over the world and in our country in recent years. Wind has an important role in renewable energy sources with its high potential. However, compared to other renewable energy sources, wind has a spatial and temporal discontinuity characteristic so there is a need for estimating and planning of wind power generation. Wind Power Plants (WPPs) inform thei...
Citation Formats
C. F. Yazıcı, “Flexibility modelling of natural gas contracts: İstanbul case,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2016.
METU IIS - Integrated Information Service open@metu.edu.tr