Financial modelling with random bridge signals and forward information

Aydın, Nadi Serhan
In this thesis, we focus on modelling financial information flow, and information-based asset pricing. The fundamental properties of the framework under study are recovered in detail, after which a brief information-theoretic perspective is offered to quantify the information content of signals. A link to the existing literature on asymmetric information/belief equilibrium is established through a sequential auction model with heterogeneous signals. The effects of differential information on the allocation of overall profit & loss (P&L) and the pace of price discovery are analysed − including the case where agents work out an effective filtration by mutually learning from trade. We characterise the signal-based expected P&L of agents based on explicit formulae for signal quality in terms of the correctness of trade direction, and explore for the existence of an optimal strategy by introducing a dynamic-programming-based decision rule, when there is a common anticipation of gains from trade. A short extension of the optimisation problem to the cases of ‘risk-adjusted gains’ and ‘risk-averse agents’ is provided. Finally, we examine, through a particular choice of real-world signal and by introducing a slightly modified version of the information process, the practical viability of the signal-based framework on a selected stock ticker. An analytical approximation to information-based price is derived through the Kummer’s function.


Skewness and kurtosis factors and asset pricing in Borsa İstanbul
Gürbüz, Aybike; Danışoğlu, Seza; Department of Financial Mathematics (2014)
Asset pricing always attracted a lot of attention in the finance world literature and it is built mainly on the mean-variance framework of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Although CAPM is commonly used by academics and practitioners, its validity is often questioned. The researchers have investigated the significance of CAPM by empirical tests, and there is a fairly large body of the literature about the shortcomings of the model. For these reasons, researchers on asset pricing have started to devel...
Optimal portfolio strategies under various risk measures
Meral, Alev; Uğur, Ömür; Department of Financial Mathematics (2013)
In this thesis, we search for optimal portfolio strategies in the presence of various risk measure that are common in financial applications. Particularly, we deal with the static optimization problem with respect to Value at Risk, Expected Loss and Expected Utility Loss measures. To do so, under the Black-Scholes model for the financial market, Martingale method is applied to give closed-form solutions for the optimal terminal wealths, then via representation problem the optimal portfolio strategies are ac...
Interim efficient auctions with interdependent valuations
Küçükşenel, Serkan (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2012-05-01)
We provide a characterization of interim efficient auctions and examine their properties in the presence of informational interdependent valuations. We show that buyers can be awarded the auctioned item less often than the efficient level. We also show that buyers obtain the item more often as the degree of heterogeneity in preferences increases, even though profitability of trade does not depend on the heterogeneity in preferences.
Stochastic optimization applied to self-financing portfolio: does bequest matter?
Gazioglu, Saziye; Bastiyali-Hayfavi, Azize (Informa UK Limited, 2010-01-01)
The article studies stochastic optimization of an intertemporal consumption model to allocate financial assets between risky and risk-free assets. We use a stochastic optimization technique, in which utility is maximized subject to a self-financing portfolio constraint. The papers in literature have estimated the errors of Euler equations using data from financial markets. It has been shown that it is sufficient to test the first order Euler equation implied by the model. However, they all assume a constant...
Overconfidence and bubbles in experimental asset markets
Şahin, Serkan; Küçükkaya, Halit Engin; Yılmaz, Özlem; Department of Business Administration (2013)
The aim of this study is to investigate uncertainty levels of industries and explore those financial ratios that have the highest information content in determining the set of industry characteristics and use the most informative ratios selected in developing industry specific financial distress models. First, we employ factor analysis to determine the set of ratios that are most informative in specified industries. Second, we use entropy method as a Multiple Attribute Decision Making Model, to measure the ...
Citation Formats
N. S. Aydın, “Financial modelling with random bridge signals and forward information,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2016.