The Determinants of food inflation in Turkey

Erol, Erdal
The major aim of this study is to find out the best models which identifies the determinants of food inflation in Turkey over the period 2003(1)-2013(12). To this end, a linear ARIMAX model is constructed by adopting an exhaustive search algorithm that is designed to select the model with most appropriate food inflation correlates. The best two models out of all candidate models having the minimum AIC and BIC values are evaluated in the estimation and prediction analyses. Roughly, our empirical results reveal that the main determinants of food inflation in Turkey are supply related factors such as producer prices of agriculture and food industry and price of water used in production. Moreover, exchange rate included in both models can be also classified as supply related variables due to its indirect effect on the input prices. To explore further the prediction performance of the selected models, a validation exercise is implemented for 2013-2014 and RMSE and MAE values of the models are compared. The results state that the best AIC model is as better due to the lower values of RMSE and MAE and the accuracy in the predicted values comparing to the best BIC model.  


Dynamics of consumer behavior and policies in sustainable food systems in Turkey
Atay Haspolat, Nihan; Kalaycıoğlu, Hediye Sibel; Department of Social Policy (2020-11)
This thesis examined causes and results of consumer behaviors, which determine the dynamics of consumption in sustainable food systems and analyzed the effectiveness of public policies on food consumption in Turkey. In this context, the structure of sustainable food systems, factors affecting food consumers’ behaviors and preferences and public policies and policy implications towards food consumers in Turkey are examined. In addition, semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with a purposively ch...
The effects of agricultural liberalization on sectoral water use: A CGE Model for Turkey
Çırpıcı, Yasemin Asu (Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi (Ankara, Turkey), 2011-8)
The aim of this study is to construct a water-CGE model for Turkey in order to examine the effects of a reduction in agricultural tariff rates on Turkey’s international trade and on agricultural water use. With agricultural trade liberalization Turkey becomes a net importer of the agricultural products. The agricultural production declines resulting in a reduction in the agricultural water use. The same simulation is considered with an increase in agricultural productivity. The trade distortions resulted fr...
The impact of sectoral competition on inflation in Turkey
Çörüş, Sinan; Voyvoda Temizsoy, Ebru; Department of Economics (2009)
This thesis explores the impact of sectoral competition on inflation in Turkey. To this end, panel data analyses investigating the determinants of deviation of sectoral price inflation from the consumer price inflation, and the resulting effect of the changes in the level of sectoral competition on this deviation measure are conducted in both static and dynamic frameworks. The empirical analyses covers the 1995-2001 period and 62 manufacturing sectors classified according to International Standard of Indust...
The casual nexus between child mortality rate, fertility rate, GDP, household final consumption expenditure, and food production index
Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa (2016-01-01)
In this study, the causal nexus between child mortality rate, fertility rate, GDP, household final consumption expenditure, and food production index in Ghana was investigated spanning from 1971 to 2013 using the Autoregressive and Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The study tested for unit root, ARDL bounds cointegration test, ARDL long-run elasticities, Granger causality, and Variance Decomposition Analysis using Cholesky technique. There was evidence of long-run equilibrium relationship running from fertili...
The sustainability analysis of Turkish domestic debt
Alkan, Feyza; Öcal, Nadir; Department of Economics (2009)
In this thesis, sustainability of the Turkish domestic debt is analyzed within the “sustainability indicators” perspective. The fiscal targets of Maastricht Treaty (1992) are imposed on the Turkish fiscal policy and it is investigated whether these targets are the indicators for sustainability in the medium term. Uctum and Wickens’ (2000) methodology is followed in assessing the sustainability of the current fiscal policy and the efficiency of the Maastricht Treaty (1992) targets. Moreover, the vector auto ...
Citation Formats
E. Erol, “The Determinants of food inflation in Turkey,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2017.