Assessing uncertainties and managing risks in shale gas projects

Tuğan, Murat Fatih
New millennium’s oil industry met the production from shale oil and shale gas formations as a revolution, a game changer which certainly have taken attention of most investors. However, shale oil and shale gas projects generally have marginal economics, hence should be carefully analyzed from the economic standpoint. To analyze the economics of a shale oil or shale gas play, generating an economically recoverable resource (ERR) probability function showing the full uncertainty range is highly important. Furthermore, the net present value (NPV) of the project together with the uncertainties inherent in it should be revealed so that the primary decision of entering a shale oil or shale gas project will be determined. As progressing through the project phases, judicious go/no-go decisions should be given at several decision gates. In this study, a methodology to evaluate shale oil and shale gas projects at any project maturity stage via a fully probabilistic approach is developed. Moreover, a new user-friendly software with graphical user interface is developed to make our methodology applicable. vi Considering the available input parameters at each of the three different project phases; exploration, appraisal and development phases, specific probabilistic reserves estimation methodologies are designed to reveal the effect of uncertainties in input parameters on the ERR probability ranges. Moreover, by utilizing the economical parameters such as market prices, tax rates and various expenditures, NPV probability ranges and hence firm go/no-go decisions at the decision gates can be attained. The main objective is to develop a methodology to obtain firm decisions at any project stage while considering the uncertainties in the input parameters and to evaluate the risks in the monetary level. Finally, the developed methodology is verified via the data obtained from a real field and utilizing the developed software.


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Citation Formats
M. F. Tuğan, “Assessing uncertainties and managing risks in shale gas projects,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2017.