Efficient simulation and modelling of counterparty credit risk

Download
2018
Hekimoğlu, Alper Ali
After 2008-2009 crisis, measurement of Counterparty Credit risk has become an essential part of Basel-III regulations. The measurement involves a complex calculation, simulation and scenario generation process which involve a heavy computational cost. Moreover, the counterparty default calculation is an important part depending on scenario generation and state of the economy, state of the counterparty, liquidity as well as the bank itself. In this thesis we develop flexible structural credit risk models and an efficient simulation framework for Counterparty Credit Risk calculations. The credit risk models are of Merton type, Black-Cox Barrier type and Stochastic Barrier type in Variance Gamma environment. We proceeded by modifying stochastic volatility models to be used for credit risk and default dependence. Moreover, we derive a liquidity adjusted option price for stochastic volatility models to measure indirect effect of liquidty on credit spreads. The models studied were all developed to include default dependence between counterparties using an affine factor framework.

Suggestions

Credit Risk Market and the Recent Loan Profile in the Turkish Banking Sector
Özdemir, Özlem (2009-05-01)
Very little research has been done on the financial stability implications of credit risk transfer markets. In particular there is a paucity of work considering the interactions between the various credit risk transfer markets or instruments. Regarding credit derivatives, the small number of existing studies can be explained by a lack of quantitative data and by the brief history of the market" (Kiff et al., 2002, page 2). This paper tries to explain the development of credit risk transfer instruments and h...
On the single name CDS price under structural modeling
GOKGOZ, I. H.; Uğur, Ömür; Okur, Y. Yolcu (2014-03-15)
Regulators, banks and other market participants realized that true assessment of the credit risk is more critical and complex than their ex-ante appraisals after the US Credit Crunch. They have turned their attention to complex credit risk models and credit instruments such as credit derivatives. Credit default swap contracts (CDSs) are the most common credit derivatives used for speculation and hedging purposes in the credit markets. Thus, in this paper we fundamentally study the pricing of a single name C...
Investigating the effects of illiquidity on credit risks via new liquidity augmented stochastic volatility jump diffusion model
Gaygısız Lajunen, Esma; Hekimoglu, Alper (2021-12-01)
Liquidity is extremely important not only within the context of financial markets but also in every scale of economic transactions. In this study, within the realm of financial markets, we configure liquidity as an independent stochastic process moderating the fluidity of all transactions and hence dynamically changing asset values. This study's asset value process ignoring liquidity is modelled with a stochastic volatility jump-diffusion (SVJ) model and that model is augmented with the incorporation of a l...
Stochastic credit default swap pricing
Gökgöz, İsmail Hakkı; Uğur, Ömür; Yolcu Okur, Yeliz; Department of Financial Mathematics (2012)
Credit risk measurement and management has great importance in credit market. Credit derivative products are the major hedging instruments in this market and credit default swap contracts (CDSs) are the most common type of these instruments. As observed in credit crunch (credit crisis) that has started from the United States and expanded all over the world, especially crisis of Iceland, CDS premiums (prices) are better indicative of credit risk than credit ratings. Therefore, CDSs are important indicators f...
Stochastic surplus processes with VaR AND CVaR simulations in actuarial applications
Şimşek, Meral; Uğur, Ömür; Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe; Department of Actuarial Sciences (2016)
The theory of ruin is a substantial study for those who are interested in financial survival probability based on the patterns imposed by the surplus process, which determines the insurer’s capital balance at a given time. In other words, fluctuations in aggregate claims as well as premiums in such processes can be secured by a certain capital. In this study, we simulate various surplus processes under different claim sizedistribution assumptions and extend the analyses by adding perturbation of a Brownian mo...
Citation Formats
A. A. Hekimoğlu, “Efficient simulation and modelling of counterparty credit risk,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2018.