Probabilistic earthquake hazard assessment for Ankara and its environs

The capital and the second largest city of Turkey, Ankara, is generally considered to be safe in terms of seismic activities and earthquake hazard. However, recent studies and earthquakes experienced in the region showed that Ankara is not indeed seismically safe. As the number of studies on Ankara's seismic hazard increases, the number of scientists who claim that the earthquake hazard in Ankara is higher than expected also increases. However, to date no detailed analysis has been undertaken as to the earthquake hazard facing Ankara. This study has compiled data from the earthquake catalogues available in Turkey and employed the latest knowledge available to produce an Ankara-specific earthquake catalogue. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of the unified data was then used to produced peak ground acceleration (PGA) values for 5%, 10%, 20%, and 40% probability of exceedance over a 50-year return period. The PGA values at main rock sites were determined using the most appropriate attenuation relationship. These show an exceedance probability of 10% over a 50-year return period to range from 0.20 g to 0.25 g for the Ankara provincial districts of Ayas, Cankaya, Etimesgut, Sincan, and Yenimahalle; from 0.25 g to 0.30 g for Altindag, Golbasi, Kecioren, and Mamak; and from 0.30 g to 0.35 g for Akyurt, Cubuk, Elmadag, and Kazan.


29 October 2007, Çameli earthquake and structural damages at unreinforced masonry buildings
Kaplan, H.; Yilmaz, S.; Akyol, E.; Sen, G.; Tama, Y. S.; Cetinkaya, N.; Nohutcu, H.; Binici, H.; Atimtay, E.; Sarisin, A. (Copernicus GmbH, 2008-8-26)
A recent earthquake of M=4.9 occurred on 29 October 2007 in C¸ ameli, Denizli, which is located in a seismically active region at southwest Anatolia, Turkey. It has caused extensive damages at unreinforced masonry buildings like many other cases observed in Turkey during other previous earthquakes. Most of the damaged structures were non-engineered, seismically deficient, unreinforced masonry buildings. This paper presents a site survey of these damaged buildings. In addition to typical masonry damag...
The depth effect of earthquakes on tsunami heights in the Sea of Okhotsk
Zaytsev, Andrey; Kostenko, Irina; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, 2016-01-01)
The earthquake of magnitude M-w = 8.3 that occurred on 24 May 2013 in the Sea of Okhotsk was the most powerful earthquake in the region. Fortunately, the generated tsunami was small because of the deep focal depth (609 km) and was only detected by the nearest Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoy records. However, the event highlighted the fact that any earthquakes with similar magnitudes at shallower focal depths would have caused considerable tsunamis. In order to evaluate the effect...
Assessment of tsunami resilience of Haydarpasa Port in the Sea of Marmara by high-resolution numerical modeling
AYTÖRE, Betul; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet; Zaytsev, Andrey; ÇANKAYA, Zeynep Ceren; Süzen, Mehmet Lütfi (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2016-08-02)
Turkey is highly prone to earthquakes because of active fault zones in the region. The Marmara region located at the western extension of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) is one of the most tectonically active zones in Turkey. Numerous catastrophic events such as earthquakes or earthquake/landslide-induced tsunamis have occurred in the Marmara Sea basin. According to studies on the past tsunami records, the Marmara coasts have been hit by 35 different tsunami events in the last 2000 years. The recent o...
Assessment of rock slope stability along the proposed Ankara-Pozant, autoroad in Turkey
Avci, K.M.; Akgün, Haluk; Doyuran, V. (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 1999-01-01)
The main objective of this study is the determination of the slope stability and excavatability category of discontinuous rock exposed between 53+000 and 58+000 km of the proposed Ankara–Pozantı autoroad in Turkey to provide secure access. The study area is mostly in the outcrops of highly jointed sandstone with minor layers of marl. This Maastrichtian–Eocene Group also contains conglomerate and limestone bands of flysch character called the Pas˙ada* Group. Quaternary alluvial deposits occur throughout the ...
Remediation of the geotechnical problems of the Hasankeyf historical area, southeastern Turkey
Akgün, Haluk (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2003-08-01)
The castle, palaces and man-made historical and recent cave dwellings of Hasankeyf will be partly flooded by the reservoir of the Ilisu dam which is planned to be constructed over the Tigris River. Hasankeyf is entirely within the Germik formation which is composed of whitish to light gray and/or beige, medium strong, fresh to slightly weathered, thick to very thick bedded, locally massive, almost horizontal or gently dipping silty, sandy limestone. The major geotechnical concerns in the area consist of the...
Citation Formats
B. Ozmen and B. B. Başbuğ Erkan, “Probabilistic earthquake hazard assessment for Ankara and its environs,” TURKISH JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCES, pp. 462–474, 2014, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: