Predictive models in ecology: Comparison of performances and assessment of applicability

Tan, Can Ozan
Ozesmi, Uygar
Beklioğlu, Meryem
Per, Esra
Kurt, Bahtiyar
Ecological systems are governed by complex interactions which are mainly nonlinear. In order to capture the inherent complexity and nonlinearity of ecological, and in general biological systems, empirical models recently gained popularity. However, although these models, particularly connectionist approaches such as multilayered backpropagation networks, are commonly applied as predictive models in ecology to a wide variety of ecosystems and questions, there are no studies to date aiming to assess the performance, both in terms of data fitting and generalizability, and applicability of empirical models in ecology. Our aim is hence to provide an overview for nature of the wide range of the data sets and predictive variables, from both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems with different scales of time-dependent dynamics, and the applicability and robustness of predictive modeling methods on such data sets by comparing different empirical modeling approaches. The models used in this study range from predicting the occurrence of submerged plants in shallow lakes to predicting nest occurrence of bird species from environmental variables and satellite images. The methods considered include k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), linear and quadratic discriminant analysis (LDA and QDA), generalized linear models (GLM) feedforward multilayer backpropagation networks and pseudo-supervised network ARTMAP.


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Tan, Can Ozan; Beklioğlu, Meryem (Elsevier BV, 2006-07-10)
Mathematical abstractions may be useful in providing insight that is otherwise very difficult to obtain due to complex interactions in the ecosystems. The difficulty associated with the nonlinearity and complexity of ecological processes and interactions can be avoided with artificial neural networks (ANN) and generalized logistic models (GLMs) which are practically ANNs without hidden layer. An ANN and a GLM were developed to determine the probability of submerged plant occurrence in five shallow Anatolian...
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Göktepe, Serdar; Wong, Jonathan; Kuhl, Ellen (Wiley, 2011-01-01)
This work deals with the computational modeling of passive myocardial tissue within the framework ofmixed, non-linear finite element methods. We consider a recently proposed, convex, anisotropic hyperelastic model that accounts for the locally orthotropic micro-structure of cardiac muscle. A coordinate-free representation of anisotropy is incorporated through physically relevant invariants of the Cauchy-Green deformation tensors and structural tensors of the corresponding material symmetry group. This model...
Cancer onset and progression: A genome-wide, nonlinear dynamical systems perspective on onconetworks
Qu, K.; Haidar, A. Abi; Fan, J.; Ensman, L.; Tuncay, Kağan; Jolly, M.; Ortoleva, P. (Elsevier BV, 2007-05-21)
It is hypothesized that the many human cell types corresponding to multiple states is supported by an underlying nonlinear dynamical system (NDS) of transcriptional regulatory network (TRN) processes. This hypothesis is validated for epithelial cells whose TRN is found to support an extremely complex array of states that we term a "bifurcation nexus", for which we introduce a quantitative measure of complexity. The TRN used is constructed and analyzed by integrating a database of TRN information, cDNA micro...
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Transcription is the first step connecting genetic information with an organism's phenotype. While expression of annotated genes in the human brain has been characterized extensively, our knowledge about the scope and the conservation of transcripts located outside of the known genes' boundaries is limited. Here, we use high-throughput transcriptome sequencing (RNA-Seq) to characterize the total non-ribosomal transcriptome of human, chimpanzee, and rhesus macaque brain. In all species, only 20-28% of non-ri...
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Understanding how functional traits distributed across ecological scales as well as environmental gradients are central issues of trait-based assembly processes. However, whether environmental filters act on individuals or species mean traits remains poorly tested. Here, we measured four functional traits - shoot height, specific leaf area, lamina thickness, and leaf dry mass content - of 4432 individuals from 30 submersed macrophyte species across 26 lakes in south China, covering a broad nutrient gradient...
Citation Formats
C. O. Tan, U. Ozesmi, M. Beklioğlu, E. Per, and B. Kurt, “Predictive models in ecology: Comparison of performances and assessment of applicability,” ECOLOGICAL INFORMATICS, pp. 195–211, 2006, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: