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Impact of climate change on the existing residential building stock in Turkey: An analysis on energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and occupant comfort

With the growing need for residential buildings as a result of population growth, the building sector is a high-priority area in climate change due to its large share of CO2 emissions, the significant energy saving opportunities it represents, and the increasing expectations for occupant comfort. This paper presents the results of climate change impact assessment on a typical mid-rise residential building in four representative cities with different climatic characteristics in Turkey. Three different scenarios that characterize different solutions towards space cooling are developed, from naturally ventilated to fully air-conditioned. The energy requirements and corresponding CO2 emissions due to space conditioning as well as occupant thermal comfort are the investigated building performance metrics. The preliminary results based on energy simulations indicate that pronounced overheating will be experienced in the future, which will have a strong effect on cooling energy use and/or occupant comfort. The projected energy demand also points to the future need to explore measures for climate change adaptation of buildings and the importance of the decarbonization of the electricity industry for climate change mitigation. The analysis results presented in this paper provide a basis for future studies on building retrofit for climate change.