Estimation of expected monetary values of selected oil fields

As there is uncertainty in estimates of capital, reserves, and net present value in the petroleum industry; risk analysis is the key point for an oil company. It is easy to make decisions after quantifying the uncertainty with ranges of possible values and associated probabilities. Instead of deterministic models, probabilistic evaluations give a wide range of outcomes for decision making. Monte Carlo Simulation is a tool that presents different scenarios and yields probability and value relationships in reserve evaluations. In this study, an estimation of the reserves of two Turkish oil fields will be performed by using Monte Carlo Simulation and method of moments. Field data will be evaluated in two different programs. One of them is a Petroleum Risk Assessment program named CashPot, which is designed to assist in determining the economic feasibility of oil and gas exploration and development projects, and the other one is the Risk Analysis and Decision Making Program sponsored by U. S. Department of Energy. In the present work, predictions were made about how statistical distribution and descriptive statistics of porosity, thickness, area, water saturation, recovery factor, and oil formation volume factor affect the simulated original oil in place (OOIP) values. The current work presents the case of two different oil fields in Turkey. It was found that both techniques produce similar results for 95%. The difference between estimated values increases as percentages decrease from 50% and 5% probability.
Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning and Policy


Monte Carlo simulation of oil fields
Kök, Mustafa Verşan; Akın, Serhat (Informa UK Limited, 2006-07-01)
Most investments in the oil and gas industry involve considerable risk with a wide range of potential outcomes for a particular project. However, many economic evaluations are based on the "most likely" results of variables that could be expected without sufficient consideration given to other possible outcomes, and it is well known that initial estimates of all these variables have uncertainty. The data is usually obtained during drilling of the initial oil well, and the sources are geophysical ( seismic s...
Recovery calculations of oil fields using predictive models
Kök, Mustafa Verşan (Informa UK Limited, 2006-12-01)
Oil reservoirs are often candidates for secondary and tertiary recovery processes. These recovery processes are needed to be screened for priority ranking due to budget, manpower, development, capabilities and permitting limitations. Sensitivity studies also need to be made in order to determine the effects of various operating strategies on project performance and economic feasibility. In this research, the application of different enhanced oil recovery methods on five heavy oil fields with different reser...
Performance prediction of underground gas storage in salt caverns
Bagci, A. Suat; Ozturk, E. (Informa UK Limited, 2007-01-01)
Underground gas storage is a common activity in countries with major transport and distribution gas pipeline infrastructures, which allows to efficiently resolve demand seasonality problems. Subsurface caverns in salt formations are being increasingly used for storage of natural gas. In this study, a real salt cavern having the potential for being an underground gas storage unit was evaluated. A model of the salt cavern was constructed within the gas simulator established for the purposes of this study. The...
A stochastic approach in reserve estimation
Kök, Mustafa Verşan (Informa UK Limited, 2006-12-01)
Geostatistics and more especially stochastic modeling of reservoir heterogeneities are being increasingly considered by reservoir analysts and engineers for their potential in generating more accurate reservoir models together with usable measures of spatial uncertainty. Geostatistics provides a probabilistic framework and a toolbox for data analysis with an early integration of information. The uncertainty about the spatial distribution of critical reservoir parameters is modeled and transferred all the wa...
Determination of wettability and its effect on waterflood performance in limestone medium
Karabakal, U (American Chemical Society (ACS), 2004-03-01)
Wettability measurement methods, the effect of wettability on fluid distribution, and fluid flow in porous media were discussed, and the influence of rock wettability on the relative permeability and recovery of oil by waterflooding were investigated. Experimental studies were conducted on a total of 23 core plugs from two different limestone formations. Synthetic brine (NaCl solution) and mineral oil, which has a viscosity ratio of similar to10, were used as the test fluids. Core samples, saturated with sy...
Citation Formats
M. V. Kök and S. Akın, “Estimation of expected monetary values of selected oil fields,” Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning and Policy, pp. 213–221, 2006, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: