Factors affecting risk mitigation revisited: the case of earthquake in Turkey

This paper investigates the effects of earthquake risk perceptions and a number of socioeconomic variables on risk mitigation. The effects of perceived risk components (probability and severity) and perceived risk characteristics (dread, knowledge, controllability, and responsibility) are investigated jointly in a single model, together with degree of risk aversion and socioeconomic factors (income, gender, age, education, and number of children). Analyses are conducted separately in order to explain variability in five different forms of mitigation behaviors: (1) purchasing of compulsory earthquake insurance, (2) past mitigation behaviors, (3) monetary value of past mitigation behaviors, (4) intentions for future mitigation behaviors, and (5) monetary value of intended future mitigation behaviors. Data are obtained from homeowners in Istanbul, where a major earthquake is expected within 30 years. The results provide evidence that all three variable sets (risk components, risk characteristics, and socioeconomic variables) may act as significant determinants of mitigation and that the driving factors for mitigation may differ across forms of mitigation behaviors investigated. The study (1) provides partial explanation for the equivocal findings in prior research regarding the relationship between risk perceptions and mitigation behaviors, and (2) offers guidelines for policy-makers in motivating communal earthquake risk mitigation.


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Sönmez, Rifat; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2007-01-01)
This paper presents a quantitative methodology to determine financial impacts of the risk factors during the bidding stages of international construction projects. Project and country data of 26 construction projects from 21 countries were collected for evaluation of the international risk factors. The factors impacting cost contingency were identified using correlation and regression analysis techniques. The results indicated that four factors had major contributions for explaining the variations in the co...
Probabilistic assessment of earthquake insurance rates for important structures: Application to Gumusova-Gerede motorway
Yücemen, Mehmet Semih; ERDİK, MUSTAFA ÖZDER (Elsevier BV, 2008-01-01)
A probabilistic model is presented for the assessment of the earthquake insurance rates for important engineering structures, for which the seismic losses could be quite significant. The proposed model is used to estimate the earthquake insurance premiums for the structures taking place in the Bolu Mountain Crossing in the Gumusova-Gerede motorway Section, Turkey. The model requires two types of studies, namely: seismic hazard analysis and estimation of potential damage to structures based on damage probabi...
Identification of Risk Paths in International Construction Projects Using Structural Equation Modeling
Eybpoosh, Matineh; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2011-12-01)
The major aim of this research is to demonstrate that causal relationships exist among various risk factors that necessitate identification of risk paths, rather than individual risk factors, during risk assessment of construction projects. International construction projects have more complex risk-emergence patterns because they are affected by global and foreign country conditions and project-related factors. Identification of a network of interactive risk paths, each of which initiated from diverse vulne...
Preferences for Earthquake Risk-Mitigation Mechanisms: Experimental Evidence
CAVLAK, ÖZGE DİNÇ; Özdemir, Özlem; Başbuğ Erkan, Berna Burçak (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2018-08-01)
This study investigates two risk-reduction mechanisms: self-insurance and market insurance. Specifically, it examines individuals' preferences and valuations for these mechanisms to mitigate the earthquake risk in Turkey. An experiment designed to test the expected utility theory and previous theoretical frameworks was conducted with 78 subjects. The results indicate that self-insurance (retrofitting the house) and market insurance (earthquake insurance) are found to be substitutes. Furthermore, self-insura...
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In risk assessment studies it is important to determine how uncertain and imprecise knowledge should be included into the simulation and assessment models. Thus, proper evaluation of uncertainties has become a major concern in environmental and health risk assessment studies. Previously, researchers have used probability theory, more commonly Monte Carlo analysis, to incorporate uncertainty analysis in health risk assessment studies. However, in conducting probabilistic health risk assessment, risk analyst ...
Citation Formats
Ö. Özdemir and C. Yılmaz, “Factors affecting risk mitigation revisited: the case of earthquake in Turkey,” JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH, pp. 17–46, 2011, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/40292.