A Case study for calculating and reporting the uncertainty budget of 1 and 2 dimensional combined hydraulic model

Download

index.pdf

Date

2019

Author

Gül, Uğraş Sidar

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

155
views

51
downloads

This study aims to suggest a framework to quantify and report the uncertainty budget of a 1 & 2 dimensional hydraulic model of five possible error sources by using ISO GUM method. The river engineers take into account several considerations when they design the riverbeds; one of the main considerations is the flood protection aspect of the riverbed, to asses that a hydraulic model is usually prepared. However, results generated from the hydraulic models are not exempt from errors. The ISO GUM method provides guidelines and specifications to express combined uncertainties to quantify and report these errors. The reference model -which is derived from a case study in Kemalpaşa, Artvin Turkey- lies in the center of data generation. Treating the reference model as a laboratory, by manipulating the reference model with custom VBA codes and exporting result with Python codes, an extensive set of data from 3825 model runs were generated for five error sources. The measurement in this study is the maximum water surface levels in meters. As a result, the uncertainty budgets of 16 cross sections and 14 two-dimensional computational cells were calculated. It is foreseen that the variations in input parameters result in a maximum combined uncertainty of ± 0.454 m for cross sections and ± 0.664 m for 2-dimensional computational cells at 95% confidence level with coverage factor of 1.96 . It would be safe to say that the majority of the error is due to the variation in Manning’s n coefficient.

Subject Keywords

Hydraulic structures., Uncertainty Budget, ISO GUM, Hydraulic Modelling, Uncertainty in Measurement, HEC-RAS.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12624005/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/44443

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

AN ANALYSIS TO IMPROVE STABILITY OF DRIVE-MODE OSCILLATIONS IN CAPACITIVE VIBRATORY MEMS GYROSCOPES Alper, S. E.; Sahin, K.; Akın, Tayfun (2009-01-29) This paper presents an analysis showing that it is possible to determine the factors that limit the stability of drive-mode oscillations of a vibratory MEMS gyroscope with precise modeling. Specifically, unwanted electrical resonance characteristics of the gyroscope drive-mode are analyzed together with analytical expressions, whereas the results of the theoretical analyses are verified both by simulations and measurements, which agree very well. It is demonstrated that the stability of the drive-mode oscil...
Design and performance analysis of a pump-turbine system using computational fluid dynamics Yıldız, Mehmet; Albayrak, Kahraman; Çelebioğlu, Kutay; Department of Mechanical Engineering (2011) In this thesis, a parametric methodology is investigated to design a Pump-Turbine system using Computational Fluid Dynamics ( CFD ). The parts of Pump-Turbine are created parametrically according to the experience curves and theoretical design methods. Then, these parts are modified to obtain 500 kW turbine working as a pump with 28.15 meters head. The final design of Pump-Turbine parts are obtained by adjusting parameters according to the results of the CFD simulations. The designed parts of the Pump-Turbi...
A simplified procedure for estimating the inelastic drift demands on frame structures Ay, Bekir Özer (null; 2008-10-17)
An observational study of the precedence effect Hacıhabiboğlu, Hüseyin (2006-05-01) This paper proposes a framework model for the analysis of sound source localisation under the precedence effect using Gaussian mixtures. The model quantifies the effect of the lagging sound over the angular position and the width of the perceived auditory event, and incorporates some well-known aspects of the precedence effect in a single framework. Two sound source localisation experiments were carried out in order to show the utility of the proposed model. In the first experiment, the localisation accurac...
A Methodology for Resolution Mapping for Cross-Resolution Simulation using Event-B Kara, Ahmet; Oğuztüzün, Mehmet Halit S.; Alpdemir, M. Nedim (2015-11-01) This paper proposes a software engineering solution for implementing simulations via the composition of models at different resolution levels with the help of formal methods. Our solution provides a systematic methodology that offers a well-defined sequence of stages to obtain executable converters for entity resolution mapping, given the types of entity attributes that are exchanged at model interfaces and the mapping specifications. Our methodology uses Event-B as the formal specification language and Dis...

Citation Formats

U. S. Gül, “A Case study for calculating and reporting the uncertainty budget of 1 and 2 dimensional combined hydraulic model,” Thesis (M.S.) -- Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences. Civil Engineering., Middle East Technical University, 2019.