Seismic fragilities for non-ductile reinforced concrete frames - Role of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties

Seismic fragilities are essential to earthquake loss estimation and performance-based earthquake engineering in regions of high seismicity. Construction practices for frames in regions of moderate seismicity are quite different, and such frames have received less attention in the literature. Fragilities for performance levels identified in recent seismic regulations are developed herein for reinforced concrete frames designed for gravity load in low-seismic regions using probabilistic non-linear finite element analysis. An examination of the contribution of uncertainties in material and structural parameters reveals that structural damping, concrete strength, and cracking strain in beam-column joints have the greatest impact on the fragilities of such frames. However, fragilities that incorporate these sources of uncertainty are only slightly different from those based solely on the uncertainty in seismic demand from earthquake ground motion, suggesting that fragilities that are developed under the assumption that all structural parameters are deterministic and equal to their median (or mean) values are sufficient for purposes of earthquake damage and loss estimation in regions of moderate seismicity. Confidence bounds on the fragilities are also presented as a measure of their accuracy for risk-informed decision-making, for prioritizing risk mitigation efforts in regions of low-to-moderate seismicity.


Ground motion simulations based on regional input parameters and their impact on insurance premiums: Bursa case
Ünal, Barış; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe; Department of Earthquake Studies (2015)
Determination of earthquake parameters are required for earthquake resistant design and retrofitting of exsisting structures. There are not many options to obtain earthquake data for regions with no or sparce earthquake recordings. Even though some methods are aplicable to these regions they generate only peak ground motion parameters. For cases that require the full ground motion simulations are necessary. Simulations can also be used for gaining knowledge about source, path and site effects. In this study...
Stochastic methods for the estimation of potential seismic damage
Askan, Ayşegül; Yücemen, M. Semih; Department of Civil Engineering (2002)
Due to uncertainties involved in both occurrences of earthquakes and structural responses, earthquake damage prediction has to be treated in a probabilistic manner. In this study, three stochastic methods, for the prediction of potential seismic damage to low and mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings in Turkey, are presented. A damage probability matrix (DPM) expresses what will happen to buildings, designed according to some particular set of requirements, during earthquakes of various intensities. In thi...
Seismic Reliability of Highway Transportation Systems
Ozcan, Naz Topkara; Yücemen, Mehmet Semih (2018-09-01)
Assessment of the reliability of lifelines under seismic loads requires particular attention, since the proper functioning of these systems during or after a destructive earthquake is very important. The main objective of this study is to investigate the system reliability of lifeline networks subjected to earthquake loads by concentrating on highway transportation systems consisting of viaducts, bridges, roads, and highways. Seismic reliability of a structural component is determined based on the seismic c...
Fragility based assessment of lowrise and midrise reinforced concrete frame buildings in turkey using Düzce damage database
Özün, Ahsen; Erberik, Murat Altuğ; Department of Civil Engineering (2007)
In this study, the seismic fragility assessment of low-rise and mid-rise reinforced concrete frame buildings which constitute approximately 75 % of the total building stock in Turkey is investigated to quantify the earthquake risk. The inventory used in this study is selected from Düzce damage database which was compiled after the devastating 1999 earthquakes in the Marmara region. These buildings are not designed according to the current code regulations and the supervision in the construction phase is not...
Seismic collapse safety based optimization of steel Moment-Resisting frames
Gholizadeh, Saeed; Hasançebi, Oğuzhan; Eser, Hasan; Koçkaya, Okan (2022-11-01)
Structures must have a reasonable seismic safety margin in order to ensure life-safety as well as to prevent structural collapse caused by earthquakes. On the other hand, the cost-efficiency and economy of structures are important and integral parts of structural engineering. The main aim of the current study is to propose an efficient methodology for designing cost-efficient multi-story special steel moment-resisting frames at predefined levels of seismic collapse safety. To achieve this purpose, a seismic...
Citation Formats
O. C. Çelik, “Seismic fragilities for non-ductile reinforced concrete frames - Role of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties,” STRUCTURAL SAFETY, pp. 1–12, 2010, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: