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Hydro-Optimization-Based Medium-Term Price Forecasting Considering Demand and Supply Uncertainty

Göl, Murat
This paper proposes an electricity market model of Turkish electricity market for monthly and yearly electricity price forecasting in medium-term by means of supply and demand dynamics formed via a theoretical approach. The electricity market model created within this scope consists of three main components related to electricity demand, supply, and price segments along with hydro optimization submodel, which takes into account the nonlinear relation between supply and price. Electricity price is determined based on the intersection of demand curve and merit order curve that has dynamic behavior for dam-type hydrogeneration, import coal, and natural gas power plants. The paper aims to determine the range of possible electricity prices rather than a single price forecast by creating multiple scenarios based on the uncertainties in main variables affecting the electricity prices. Meanwhile, electricity generation portfolio with respect to market participants and primary energy resources as well as price forecasts can be obtained simultaneously. Ultimately, the model can identify how effective a variable of the market on the electricity price is. The developed method is validated via real data.