Hydro Inflow Forecasting and Virtual Power Plant Pricing in the Turkish Electricity market

2019-05-23
Çabuk, Sezer
Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe
Kalaycı, Erkan
Hydro inflow forecasting with most accurate quantitative models is a very crucial subject for effective hydro optimization, virtual power plant pricing, volume risk management and weather derivatives pricing in the Turkish electricity market. Predicting increase or decrease in hydro inflow, seasonal characteristics of hydrological years such as wet, dry or normal, allow the decision-makers to economically use water for optimal periods, quantify of volume risk and determine effective portfolio management strategies. In this study, we focus on defining and pricing a hydroelectricity power plant as a Virtual Power Plant (VPP). For pricing of this non-standard option, we work on inflow and price scenarios and optimization model with the possible real world constraints. For the hydro inflow forecasting that will be used in optimization model, we apply Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with Exogenous Variable (SARIMAX), whereas lagged indexed precipitation data, having the highest correlation with historical inflow data, is included as exogenous variable. In addition to point forecast of hydro inflow, we generate various inflow scenarios by using the distribution of model fit residuals as a stochastic processes for defined VPP. Moreover, we work on hydro optimization problem where objective function is maximizing the expected value of generation by tracing to generated inflow and price scenarios. Price scenarios are simulated by using the hourly shape of historical Day Ahead Market (DAM) prices. As a result, we could analyze the optimization outputs according to different price and inflow levels. For defined VPP, Volume at Risk measure is pressed to explain the meaning of risky volume for the valuation of VPP.
7th Multinational Energy and Value Conference, (23 - 25 May 2019)

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Citation Formats
S. Çabuk, S. A. Kestel, and E. Kalaycı, “Hydro Inflow Forecasting and Virtual Power Plant Pricing in the Turkish Electricity market,” presented at the 7th Multinational Energy and Value Conference, (23 - 25 May 2019), Ankara, Turkey, 2019, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: http://www.centerforenergyandvalue.org/files/EV2019%20Book%20of%20Abstracts.pdf.