Precipitation Modeling by Polyhedral RCMARS and Comparison with MARS and CMARS

Ozmen, Ayse
Batmaz, İnci
Weber, Gerhard-Wilhelm
Climate change is becoming an ever important issue due to the possibility that it may result in extreme weather events such as floods or droughts. Consequently, precipitation forecasting has similarly gained in significance as it is a useful tool in meeting the increasing need for the efficient management of water resources as well as in preventing disasters before they happen. In the literature, there are various statistical and computational methods used for this purpose, including linear and nonlinear regression, kriging, time series models, neural networks, and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). Among them, MARS stands out as the better performing precipitation modeling method. In this article, we used a recently developed method called robust conic mars (RCMARS), based on MARS (also on CMARS), to forecast precipitation owing to its ability to model complex uncertain data. In CMARS, which was developed as a powerful alternative to MARS, the model complexity is penalized in the form of Tikhonov regularization and studied as a conic quadratic programming. In RCMARS, on the other hand, CMARS is refined further by including the existence of uncertainty in the future scenarios and robustifying it with a robust optimization technique. To evaluate the performance of the RCMARS method, it was applied to build a precipitation model constructed as an early warning system for the continental Central Anatolia Region of Turkey, where drought has been a recurrent phenomenon for the last few decades. Furthermore, the performance of the RCMARS precipitation model was also compared to that of MARS and CMARS. The results indicated that RCMARS builds more accurate, precise, and stable precipitation models compared to those of MARS and CMARS. In addition to these advantageous features of the RCMARS precipitation model, it also provided a good fit to the data. As a result, we propose its use in precipitation forecasting for the region studied.


Drought analysis using CORDEX simulations over the mediterranean climate regions of Turkey
Poyraz, Anıl Yıldırım; Yücel, İsmail; Department of Civil Engineering (2018)
Drought has been a significant result of climate change that causes variance on precipitation regimes. Mediterranean region is one of the hotspots of the world in this respect. Dry summers and rainy winters -the characteristic of this climate type- makes this region more vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Hence, it is important to monitor drought considering the increasing population and economic facilities in the regions that are under Mediterranean climate conditions in Turkey. This study aims t...
Climate Change Impact on Multi-Objective Optimization: A Case Study on Educational Buildings
Akın, Şahin; Işeri, Orçun Koral; Akgül, Çağla; Erdoğan, Bilge; Gürsel Dino, Ipek (null; 2020-05-23)
The changing weather conditions due to global climate change is expected to have a direct impact on buildings’ energy demand and occupant comfort. These conditions are estimated to become more challenging for educational facilities due to their high occupant density and the students’ sensitivity to heat. This study aims to present an approach for a comparative analysis for multi-objective optimization results that are projected under different climate change conditions. Two separate optimization processes w...
Overcoming basis risk in agricultural index insurance using crop simulation modeling and satellite crop phenology
Hesamı Afshar, Mehdı; Foster, Timothy; P. Higginbottom, Thomas; Parkes, Ben; Hufkens, Koen; Mansabdar, Sanjay; Ceballos, Francisco; Kramer, Berber (2021-04-19)
Extreme weather causes substantial damage to livelihoods of smallholder farmers globally and are projected to become more frequent in the coming decades as a result of climate change. Index insurance can theoretically help farmers to adapt and mitigate the risks posed by extreme weather events, providing a financial safety net in the event of crop damage or harvest failure. However, uptake of index insurance in practice has lagged far behind expectations. A key reason is that many existing index insurance p...
Evaluating maritime intelligent transportation systems: The case of using electric ferries and renewable energy in Türkiye
Pense, Caner; Akınoğlu, Bülent Gültekin; Atik, Oğuz; Department of Earth System Science (2022-10-26)
Climate Change and Global Warming are among the most critical global problems today. Their effects can be seen all over the world. The maritime sector contributes to global Climate Change and Global Warming with greenhouse gas emissions from coastal structures and ships. At the local level, it also negatively affects all life with environmental pollution, especially air and sea. Today, drive technologies are developing at a dizzying speed. In land transportation, electric vehicles are frequently seen. Elect...
Geochemical modeling of CO2-water-rock interaction in indonesian geothermal fields for a possible future carbon capture and storage project
Utomo, Gagas Pambudi; Yılmaz, Koray K.; Department of Geological Engineering (2019)
The rise of CO2 concentration in Earth’s atmosphere from anthropogenic emissions is the main cause of global warming and climate change. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is considered as an effective method to reduce such emission. CCS can be performed in various sites including geothermal reservoirs. This study is concerned with geochemical modeling of CO2-water-rock interaction for a possible future CCS project in Indonesian geothermal fields, namely Ungaran, Baturaden, Dieng and Awibengkok. The modeling ...
Citation Formats
A. Ozmen, İ. Batmaz, and G.-W. Weber, “Precipitation Modeling by Polyhedral RCMARS and Comparison with MARS and CMARS,” ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT, pp. 425–435, 2014, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: