Drought analysis using CORDEX simulations over the mediterranean climate regions of Turkey

Download
index.pdf
2018
Poyraz, Anıl Yıldırım
Show full item record
263
views
110
downloads
Drought has been a significant result of climate change that causes variance on precipitation regimes. Mediterranean region is one of the hotspots of the world in this respect. Dry summers and rainy winters -the characteristic of this climate type- makes this region more vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Hence, it is important to monitor drought considering the increasing population and economic facilities in the regions that are under Mediterranean climate conditions in Turkey. This study aims to assess the trends in drought by applying the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) for 5 timescales – from 1 month to 12 months. The model grid data that corresponds to meteorological stations distributed from south to west within the study area was obtained from 12 different Global Circulation Model / Regional Climate Model couplings of CORDEX project. Observed and modeled prediction data were compared for reference period (1971-2005) in order to detect the most reliable models. Afterwards, modified Mann-Kendall trend test was applied on the SPI and annual precipitation values for the entire period (1972-2100). The trends were estimated by linear regression for the locations in which Mann-Kendall results indicated a significant change. In conclusion, a persistent increasing drought trend was detected for Muğla and western Antalya parts such that all models are coherent. On the other hand, the divergence of the trends for some regions according to different models signifies the discrepancy of models. Besides, the drought trends are decreasing for some regions (especially Southern Marmara) as the timescale increases.
Precipitation forecasting., Drought forecasting., Climatic changes.
http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12622080/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/27281
Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

Suggestions

ASSESSING DROUGHT BY STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX WITH OBSERVATION AND CORDEX DATA IN TURKEY’S MEDITERRANEAN REGION
Poyraz, Anıl; Yücel, İsmail (2018-06-02)
This study aims to assess the trends in drought by using the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) for 14 stations from Mediterranean climate region of Turkey. The SPI values for different timescales - from 1month to 1 year - are estimated for past and future by using the observed, uncorrected and bias corrected model data. The model data that correspond the grids which consist these 14 stations was obtained from 12 different climate models on CORDEX project. Bias correction method was applied using equival...
Assessment of different rainfall products in flood simulations
Özkaya, Arzu; Akyürek, Sevda Zuhal; Department of Civil Engineering (2017)
Floods happening due to heavy rainfall are one of the most widespread natural hazards. To predict such events, accurate rainfall products and well calibrated hydrologic models are essential especially in urban settlements for life savings. With the objective of assessing the rain detection potential of rainfall data products, several hourly rainfall datasets are used as forcing inputs in two hydrologic models. Physic based distributed model, WRF-Hydro, and conceptual based lumped model, HEC HMS, are used to...
Drought Forecasting with Time Series and Machine Learning Approaches
Evkaya, Ömer Ozan; Yozgatlıgil, Ceylan; Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe (null; 2017-12-08)
As a main reason of undesired agricultural, economic and environmental damages, drought is one of the most important stochastic natural hazard having certain features. In order to manage the impacts of drought, more than 100 drought indices have been proposed for both monitoring and forecasting purposes [1], [3]. For different types of droughts, these indices have been used to understand the effects of dry periods including meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in many distinct locations. I...
Extreme precipitation and drought monitoring in northeastern China using general circulation models and pan evaporation-based drought indices
Faiz, Muhammad Abrar; Liu, Dong; Fu, Qiang; Wrzesinski, Dariusz; Baig, Faisal; Nabi, Ghulam; Khan, Muhammad Imran; Li, Tianxiao; Cui, Song (2018-01-01)
The evaluation of precipitation extremes and the usage of appropriate drought indices are very important for assessment of natural disasters (i.e. floods and drought). For this purpose, we calculated values of indices that reflect precipitation extremes and 3 drought indices, i.e. the composite index (CI), standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and reconnaissance drought index (RDI), with reformulation of pan evaporation and Penman-Monteith equations (denoted as CI-Pan, RDI-Pan, RDI-PM,...
Precipitation Modeling by Polyhedral RCMARS and Comparison with MARS and CMARS
Ozmen, Ayse; Batmaz, İnci; Weber, Gerhard-Wilhelm (2014-10-01)
Climate change is becoming an ever important issue due to the possibility that it may result in extreme weather events such as floods or droughts. Consequently, precipitation forecasting has similarly gained in significance as it is a useful tool in meeting the increasing need for the efficient management of water resources as well as in preventing disasters before they happen. In the literature, there are various statistical and computational methods used for this purpose, including linear and nonlinear re...
Citation Formats
A. Y. Poyraz, “Drought analysis using CORDEX simulations over the mediterranean climate regions of Turkey,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2018.
METU IIS - Integrated Information Service open@metu.edu.tr