Forecasting Nigeria's energy use by 2030, an econometric approach

Date

2016-01-01

Author

Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel
Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

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The study examines the causal nexus between energy use, environmental pollution, GDP per capita, and urbanization in order to forecast Nigeria's energy use by 2030. Employing a time-series data spanning from 1971 to 2012, a linear regression analysis is used to examine the causal relationship among the study variables and subsequently forecasted Nigeria's energy use with the ARIMA and ETS models. Evidence from the study shows that a 1% increase in energy use increases carbon dioxide emissions by 3%, while a 1% increase in economic growth increases carbon dioxide emissions by 0.18%. Evidence from both the ARIMA and ETS models shows an increase of energy use from 795 kg per oil equivalent per capita in 2012 to 915 kg per oil equivalent per capita in 2030.

Subject Keywords

Fuel Technology, Energy Engineering and Power Technology, General Chemical Engineering

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/64618

Journal

ENERGY SOURCES PART B-ECONOMICS PLANNING AND POLICY

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2016.1217287

Collections

Economics and Administrative Sciences, Article

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Citation Formats

S. Asumadu-Sarkodie and P. A. Owusu, “Forecasting Nigeria’s energy use by 2030, an econometric approach,” ENERGY SOURCES PART B-ECONOMICS PLANNING AND POLICY, pp. 990–997, 2016, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/64618.