ARIMA forecasting of primary energy demand by fuel in Turkey

Date

2007-03-01

Author

Ediger, Volkan S.
Akar, Sertac

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

216
views

0
downloads

Forecasting of energy demand in emerging markets is one of the most important policy tools used by the decision makers all over the world. In Turkey, most of the early studies used include various forms of econometric modeling. However, since the estimated economic and demographic parameters usually deviate from the realizations, time-series forecasting appears to give better results. In this study, we used the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) methods to estimate the future primary energy demand of Turkey from 2005 to 2020. The ARIMA forecasting of the total primary energy demand appears to be more reliable than the summation of the individual forecasts. The results have shown that the average annual growth rates of individual energy sources and total primary energy will decrease in all cases except wood and animal-plant remains which will have negative growth rates. The decrease in the rate of energy demand may be interpreted that the energy intensity peak will be achieved in the coming decades. Another interpretation is that any decrease in energy demand will slow down the economic growth during the forecasted period. Rates of changes and reserves in the fossil fuels indicate that inter-fuel substitution should be made leading to a best mix of the country's energy system. Based on our findings we proposed some policy recommendations.

Subject Keywords

Primary energy demand, ARIMA forecasting, Turkey

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/65270

Journal

ENERGY POLICY

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2006.05.009

Collections

Department of Geological Engineering, Article

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Corporate strategies for currency risk management Tekcan, İsmail Berat; Kestel, A. Sevtap.; Department of Financial Mathematics (2019) For many years, forecasting the sales has been thought as a significant fundamental for the companies that operate in fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector. Companies that are successful in predicting their sales, also have the strength to manage company’s financials. Also, companies have the chance to react to tough situations that they might face. In the academic literature, there exist many studies about forecasting the future of sales. However, there are limited studies about how the companies foreca...
A review of Ghana's energy sector national energy statistics and policy framework Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa (2016-01-01) In this study, a review of Ghana's energy sector national energy statistics and policy framework is done to create awareness of the strategic planning and energy policies of Ghana's energy sector that will serve as an informative tool for both local and foreign investors, help in national decision-making for the efficient development and utilization of energy resources. The review of Ghana's energy sector policy is to answer the question, what has been done so far? And what is the way forward? The future re...
Oil Prices, Fossil-Fuel Stocks and Alternative Energy Stocks Gormus, Alper; Diltz, David; Soytaş, Uğur (2015-07-01) As new alternative energy industries are created and old ones are revised, markets constantly try to interpret and adjust to those changes. The purpose of this study is to shed some light on the inner dynamics of the select outside price-shocks versus sector-specific energy companies. This study analyzes the inner dynamics (both short and long-term) of sub-sector energy company portfolios such as petroleum, coal, natural gas, solar, nuclear, wind, and biofuel with respect to each other as well as other asse...
Data-driven modeling using deep neural networks for power systems demand and locational marginal price forecasting Jimu, Honest; Fahrioğlu, Murat; Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2022-9) Forecasting electricity demand and locational marginal prices (LMPs) have become critical components for power system security and management. Electricity Demand Forecasting (EDF) aids the utility in maximizing the use of power-generation plants and scheduling them for both reliability and cost-effectiveness. In this thesis, a novel Deep Neural Network Long Short-Term Memory (DNN-LSTM) forecasting model is suggested to improve accuracy and robustness for predicting hourly day ahead power system load and LMP...
Solar energy potentials in strategically located cities in Nigeria: Review, resource assessment and PV system design Okoye, Chiemeka Onyeka; Taylan, Onur; Baker, Derek Keıth (2016-03-01) Ensuring energy security increasingly requires expanding both yield and resilience of supply through source diversification. In this study, the current energy situation of Nigeria is presented through a detailed literature review. The survey reveals that access to the national grid is limited, and the power delivered to areas classified as urban with grid connection is very unreliable. An initial assessment of the potential utilization of solar based technologies for electricity generation is presented for ...

Citation Formats

V. S. Ediger and S. Akar, “ARIMA forecasting of primary energy demand by fuel in Turkey,” ENERGY POLICY, pp. 1701–1708, 2007, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/65270.