Astana process in context with Iranian, Russian and Turkish foreign policies on Syrian complexity

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2020-9
Çoban, Mehmet İlbey
This thesis is based on explaining the dynamics that led the Iran, Russia and Turkey to initiate Astana Process within the framework of the Syrian Civil War’s changing dynamics. The theoretical part intends to combine neorealism with the “complexity” paradigm. Neorealism’s linear ontology is problematic in explaining the changing dynamics. The complexity paradigm explains non-linear processes derived from its ontological foundation. Especially the variety and diversity of actors, their interconnection, interdependence, and adaptation to the situation can be a solution against the reductionism of this phenomenon. Actors in the Syrian crisis are very diverse, and it can be observed that actors like ISIS can profoundly affect the policies in this process, and the Syrian issue can affect varied actors’ security and foreign policies that are also based on power competition. At the same time, it can be seen that with the emergence of ISIS and Russian activism in the Syrian complexity, especially her intervention in Syria as well as other actors’ policies on this complexity, the regional and global powers have also co-adapted their policies on the changing dynamics. In order to comprehend this process, the Complex Adaptive System model was improved to apply in the changing dynamics in Syria and actors’ positions as well as interconnected interactions involved in the area. This co-adaptation also derives from the intertwined causalities in the complexity which is between the order and disorder. The Astana process is also an expression of this co-adaptation in Iranian, Russian and Turkish policies in Syrian Complexity.

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Citation Formats
M. İ. Çoban, “Astana process in context with Iranian, Russian and Turkish foreign policies on Syrian complexity,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2020.