Date

2016-8

Author

Günsel, Cansu Bahar

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Environmental problems have reached to global dimensions towards the end of the twentieth century. These problems are serious matters and gaining significance due to the threat on humanity: thinning in the ozone layer; global warming; greenhouse effect; natural balance deterioration; rainforest destruction; and air and water pollution. However, the most serious and globalized environmental problem for both developed as well as developing countries is the climate change. Mainly due to anthropogenic and industrialization activities concentration levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have increased, and greenhouse effect has emerged, therefore; degradation of the environment has begun, air and water pollution has appeared. Especially in the Mediterranean, which is one of the inland seas, has faced extreme contamination. Cyprus as the third largest island in the Mediterranean after Sicily and Sardinia has affected. More or less similar environmental issues can be observed in the whole island of Cyprus. Especially Northern Cyprus has encountered problems sourced by thermal power plants, road transportation and fuel-based energy uses, and wastes. In this study, environmental issues are examined for Northern Cyprus in terms of air pollution and solid wastes. A descriptive statistical analysis is done. Time series forecasting by Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA techniques are conducted for air emissions measurement and generated solid waste of Northern Cyprus in order to predict leading period variables. Descriptive results are derived, as well as different implications are also be included regarding the results of prediction analysis for Northern Cyprus. The predicted values are also measured by a forecast accuracy method of MAPE, and as a result it is obvious that ARIMA model provides better forecasts than Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method. In brief, as a conclusion of the analysis of both air emission measurements and solid waste generation indicate that the level of emitted ozone for five measurement stations will increase, as well as, there will also be an increment in the total generated waste.

Subject Keywords

Air Pollution, Solid Waste Management, Northern Cyprus, Time Series Analysis, ARIMA Forecasting

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/69700

Collections

Northern Cyprus Campus, Thesis