Analysis of teleconnection patterns on climate of Northern Cyprus

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2019-9
Nabango, Hope Nabwire
The complex interaction of components in the climate system has greatly contributed to uncertainty in climate patterns. Inarguably, anthropogenic factors have relentlessly increased this phenomenon. While innumerable research aimed at forecasting these interactions and their impacts on climate identify three streams of uncertainties as; model responses, external forcing factors and internal atmospheric variability, lack of knowledge on these factors have continue to challenge efficient results pertaining to climate change, its variation and its mitigation. Surface temperature and precipitation on a monthly, seasonal and annual timescale for the period of 1978-2015 obtained from the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus Metrological department. The atmosphere-ocean interaction is herein explored to identify feasible association and impact of a series of teleconnection patterns (AO, NAO, NCP, ENSO, and WeMO) on climate in Northern Cyprus. Pearson and Spearman correlation analysis were employed to establish the possible relationship between precipitation and temperature and teleconnections patterns. NCP proves to be highly dominant in the region, at all timescales but provides the strongest relations with temperature in autumn, winter and spring. NAO and AO show significant negative correlation with temperature in winter and summer whereas ENSO shows the least association in only 21% of the temperature recorded stations; in autumn and summer. WeMO is the sole index which affects rainfall in autumn, winter and summer negatively. Its effect on temperature is seen in summer, autumn and spring both appearing negatively and positively. These results will be relevant in the downscaling of Global Circulation Models.

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Citation Formats
H. N. Nabango, “Analysis of teleconnection patterns on climate of Northern Cyprus,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2019.