Analysis of Relations between Solar Activity, Cosmic Rays and the Earth Climate using Machine Learning Techniques

Download

BB_THESIS.pdf

Date

2021-9-7

Author

Belen, Bükem

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

394
views

232
downloads

The Earth's climate is part of a complicated system that can be affected by many different parameters, both internal and external. Important external forces on the climate are galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and the Sun. Some research has already been conducted to investigate the relationship between the climate and external forces such as the GCR and solar activity. However, the relations are quite complicated and buried into almost chaotic meteorological measurements. This thesis looks deeper into the interactions between them. The parameters used in the correlation analysis are GCR flux, Sunspot number (SSN), total solar irradiance (TSI), UV irradiance (UVI), and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) as the predictor variables; total cloud amount (TCA), low cloud amount (LCA), global mean temperature anomaly (GMTA), aerosol optical depth (AOD) and precipitation as the response variables. The analysis begins with standard statistical techniques and continues with multiple regression and machine learning methods for non-linear regression, such as random forests. Both geographical and temporal patterns have been investigated. This study shows that some parameters have a weak linear correlation, while a statistically significant non-linear relationship occurs between them. It can be concluded that the GCR-climate connection does exist, and these non-linear relations should be investigated further, specifically in certain regions of the World.

Subject Keywords

Solar Activity, Cosmic Rays, Climate, Clouds, Random Forests, Multiple Regression Models

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/93248

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Analysis of teleconnection patterns on climate of Northern Cyprus Nabango, Hope Nabwire; Akıntuğ, Bertuğ; Sustainable Environment and Energy Systems (2019-9) The complex interaction of components in the climate system has greatly contributed to uncertainty in climate patterns. Inarguably, anthropogenic factors have relentlessly increased this phenomenon. While innumerable research aimed at forecasting these interactions and their impacts on climate identify three streams of uncertainties as; model responses, external forcing factors and internal atmospheric variability, lack of knowledge on these factors have continue to challenge efficient results pertaining to...
Investigation of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies over Cyprus Area Georgiou, Andreas; Akcit, Nuhcan (2016-04-08) The temperature of the sea surface has been identified as an important parameter of the natural environment, governing processes that occur in the upper ocean. This paper focuses on the analysis of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies at the greater area of Cyprus. For that, SST data derived from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on board both Aqua and Terra sun synchronous satellites were used. A four year period was chosen as a first approach to address and describe t...
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Turkish Water Resources: A Review Yılmaz, Koray Kamil; Yazıcıgil, Hasan (2010-09-04) Water resources are mainly controlled by the climate conditions. Global warming will therefore have evolving impacts on water resources and poses important challenges for sustainable development. Studies are rapidly emerging with focus on potential implications of climate change on Turkish water resources. These studies can be grouped into two major fields: (1) Studies investigating the degree of climate change reflected in the past observed hydro-meteorological records, and (2) studies investigating potent...
Evaluating the utility obtained by using radar based precipitation for prediction of flood events in western Black Sea basins of Turkey Yücel, İsmail; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (2016-10-10) Climate change has a direct influence on the hydrological cycle and its elements. Consequently, extreme events are expected to occur more frequently at different times and locations on the Earth and become more catastrophic.Hence, it is critically important to develop systems to accurately forecast rising water levels of streams and rivers prior to occurrence of dangerous conditions. Real-time flood forecasting systems are becoming a critical tool for emergency preparedness and decision making. Given radar ...
Advances in integration of energy, water and environment systems towards climate neutrality for sustainable development Kılkış, Şiir; Krajacic, Goran; Duic, Neven; Rosen, Marc A.; Al-Nimr, Moh'd Ahmad (2020-12-01) The integration of energy, water and environment systems represents important opportunities for addressing the urgent imperative of climate neutrality. The 29 original papers in the virtual special issue of the 14th Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems exemplify multiple advances in integrated approaches. This editorial provides a review of recent scientific contributions in energy system integration, urban synergies in the energy transition, integration of energy a...

Citation Formats

B. Belen, “Analysis of Relations between Solar Activity, Cosmic Rays and the Earth Climate using Machine Learning Techniques,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2021.