Estimation of diffuse solar irradiation and its effects on PV power plant production at METU NCC

Download
2019-8
Kavas, Genco
Excess amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is the main reason of global warming. Renewable energy systems are one possible way to decrease GHG emission and solar energy is one of options; however, fluctuations on solar energy production is one of the main drawbacks. Accurate estimation of energy production from a solar power plant, such as PV-based plant is important to satisfy energy demand successfully. To be able to estimate energy production in advance, solar energy incident on PV modules should be known first. For this thesis, the most accurate model is sought to estimate solar energy on a tilted surface in Cyprus. To be able to estimate total solar energy on a tilted surface GHI, DNI and DHI values should be known; however, DHI measurement is available for some parts of the World for a limited period. There are some models to estimate DHI and as a first step the most accurate model is found to estimate DHI for Cyprus. Different models from the literature have been checked and models which give accurate results in the locations which are close Cyprus are determined and these models are checked for Cyprus. According to this comparison Bailek’s 23rd model is selected as the most accurate model to estimate for Cyprus. For the second part of this thesis, different models to estimate total solar energy on a tilted surface are checked. Estimation results were compared with measurements collected with a 30° tilted pyranometer in METU NCC. Liu-Jordan, Perez, Muneer, Skartveit-Olseth- Hay and Davies- Reindl, HDKR and Badescu models were checked and according to comparison results simple, isotropic models like Liu-Jordan and Badescu gave more accurate results than most sophisticated model Perez. %RMSE between tilted measurement and isotropic models (Badescu and LiuJordan) were 17%. Same steps were repeated with DHI estimated with Bailek’s 23rd model and some equations are suggested according to DHI measurements collected in METU NCC. %RMSE between measured tilted irradiation and tilted irradiation calculated with DHI estimated with Bailek’s 23rd model was 68%. Additionally, %RMSE for total tilted energy calculated with equation created for this study was 72%. Energy production from a PV power plant with this tilted estimation was compared with actual production of METU NCC PV power plant. %RMSE between actual production and estimation with measured DHI was about 20% for all the models, but Badescu model gave the most accurate estimation with 18%. %RMSE calculated for the same models, but instead of measured DHI, DHI estimated with Bailek’s 23 model was used and results were within 24%, Badescu model gave the most accurate estimation with 22%. %RMSE calculated energy production from tilted measurement which has the same tilt angle with PV modules of METU NCC PV power plant. %RMSE was 20.3% and this showed that energy production estimation with measured or estimated DHI was very close to energy estimation amount with measured titled irradiation. These results showed that DHI can be estimated with Bailek’s 23 model accurately, simple isotropic models such as Badescu or Liu-Jordan can be used to estimate total irradiation on a tilted surface accurately. When these estimations are used to estimate energy production of PV power plant, they would work with a high accuracy.

Suggestions

Assessment of CO2 Storage Potential in Turkey, Modeling and a Prefeasibility Study for Injection into an Oil Field
Okandan, Ender; Karakeçe, Yıldız; Cetin, Hayati; Topkaya, Ilhan; Parlaktuna, Mahmut; Akın, Serhat; Bülbül, Sevtaç; Dalha, Chantsalma; Anbar, Sultan; Cetinkaya, Ceyda; Ermis, Ismail; Yilmaz, Mustafa; Ustun, Volkan; Yapan, Kadri; Erten, A. Tayfun; Demiralin, Yasemin; Akalan, Ergun (2010-09-23)
The large amount of CO2 that can be mitigated by geologic storage had gained interest during the last 15 years. Acceptance of CCS under CDM is still under discussion(IEA, 2008) however there are several pilot or field scale projects and monitoring surveys that are underway which will make the technology better known and resolve the risks involved. This study involves assessment of possible geologic sites for CO2 storage and calculation of CO2 emissions from thermal power plants with capacities > 500 MWe, ce...
Estimation of carbon footprint: a case study for Middle East Technical University
Turanlı, Ayşe Merve; Mehmetoğlu, Mustafa Tanju; Okandan, Ender; Department of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering (2015)
As the amount of the greenhouse gas emission increases, its effect on climate change becomes accordingly important. This fact is proved by the measurements conducted by NASA in terms of mole fraction of CO2. After 1950’s due to rapid rise in industrial activity of post-industrial revolution period, CO2 amount in the air increased constantly. Atmospheric concentration of CO2 increases at an accelerating rate . In year 2014, the CO2 emission value had reached 398.78 ppm. This increase led the investigators to...
GIS-based site selection methodology for hybrid renewable energy systems: A case study from western Turkey
Aydin, Nazli Yonca; Kentel Erdoğan, Elçin; Duzgun, H. Sebnem (Elsevier BV, 2013-06-01)
Renewable energy sources are presently being considered as alternatives to fossil fuels, because they are perpetual, environmentally friendly, and release negligible amounts of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere while producing energy. A disadvantage of renewable energy systems, however, is that continuous energy generation is not possible by using only one type of renewable energy system, since renewable energy resources depend on climate and weather conditions. Two or more renewable energy systems can be ...
A techno-economic feasibility study of a gridconnected hybrid solar pv-wind power generation system in Zimbabwe
Samu, Remember; Fahrioğlu, Murat; Sustainable Environment and Energy Systems (2019-1)
The depletion of fossil fuel resources on a worldwide basis and an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and climate change as a whole have caused an urgent search for alternative sustainable energy sources to cater for the rising energy demands. The demand of energy is rapidly growing in both developing and developed nations thus making hybrid renewable energy power systems (RES), comprising Solar Photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy to be chosen as one of the best alternatives. However, on the downside, these...
Preliminary Study on Site Selection For Floating Hybrid Wind And Solar Energy Systems In Turkey
Yerlikaya, Nevzat Can; Çakan, Çağatay; Başara, Ilgın; Caceoğlu, Eray; Huvaj Sarıhan, Nejan (2021-09-08)
It is well-known that even though fossil fuels are the main energy resource in Turkey, use of sustainable energy resources such as wind and solar energy has been increasing in the past years and expected to continue on this trend in the next years to come. The suitable land for land-based wind turbines and photovoltaic (PV) systems could also be convenient for various other purposes, such as agriculture. This study aims to investigate the suitable sites for a combined floating wind and solar systems in the ...
Citation Formats
G. Kavas, “Estimation of diffuse solar irradiation and its effects on PV power plant production at METU NCC,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2019.