Estimation of diffuse solar irradiation and its effects on PV power plant production at METU NCC

Kavas, Genco
Excess amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is the main reason of global warming. Renewable energy systems are one possible way to decrease GHG emission and solar energy is one of options; however, fluctuations on solar energy production is one of the main drawbacks. Accurate estimation of energy production from a solar power plant, such as PV-based plant is important to satisfy energy demand successfully. To be able to estimate energy production in advance, solar energy incident on PV modules should be known first. For this thesis, the most accurate model is sought to estimate solar energy on a tilted surface in Cyprus. To be able to estimate total solar energy on a tilted surface GHI, DNI and DHI values should be known; however, DHI measurement is available for some parts of the World for a limited period. There are some models to estimate DHI and as a first step the most accurate model is found to estimate DHI for Cyprus. Different models from the literature have been checked and models which give accurate results in the locations which are close Cyprus are determined and these models are checked for Cyprus. According to this comparison Bailek’s 23rd model is selected as the most accurate model to estimate for Cyprus. For the second part of this thesis, different models to estimate total solar energy on a tilted surface are checked. Estimation results were compared with measurements collected with a 30° tilted pyranometer in METU NCC. Liu-Jordan, Perez, Muneer, Skartveit-Olseth- Hay and Davies- Reindl, HDKR and Badescu models were checked and according to comparison results simple, isotropic models like Liu-Jordan and Badescu gave more accurate results than most sophisticated model Perez. %RMSE between tilted measurement and isotropic models (Badescu and LiuJordan) were 17%. Same steps were repeated with DHI estimated with Bailek’s 23rd model and some equations are suggested according to DHI measurements collected in METU NCC. %RMSE between measured tilted irradiation and tilted irradiation calculated with DHI estimated with Bailek’s 23rd model was 68%. Additionally, %RMSE for total tilted energy calculated with equation created for this study was 72%. Energy production from a PV power plant with this tilted estimation was compared with actual production of METU NCC PV power plant. %RMSE between actual production and estimation with measured DHI was about 20% for all the models, but Badescu model gave the most accurate estimation with 18%. %RMSE calculated for the same models, but instead of measured DHI, DHI estimated with Bailek’s 23 model was used and results were within 24%, Badescu model gave the most accurate estimation with 22%. %RMSE calculated energy production from tilted measurement which has the same tilt angle with PV modules of METU NCC PV power plant. %RMSE was 20.3% and this showed that energy production estimation with measured or estimated DHI was very close to energy estimation amount with measured titled irradiation. These results showed that DHI can be estimated with Bailek’s 23 model accurately, simple isotropic models such as Badescu or Liu-Jordan can be used to estimate total irradiation on a tilted surface accurately. When these estimations are used to estimate energy production of PV power plant, they would work with a high accuracy.


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Citation Formats
G. Kavas, “Estimation of diffuse solar irradiation and its effects on PV power plant production at METU NCC,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2019.